The future of Canada’s supply management system is back in the headlines after the U.S. Congress voted to keep president Barack Obama’s trade agenda alive June 24.
In a stunning turn of events, U.S. politicians have approved Trade Promotion Authority legislation for the pending, multibillion-dollar Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Commonly known as fast-track authority, TPA turns any final vote on the TPP trade deal into a simple yes-no vote.
The legislation was considered essential by the 12 negotiating nations with several high profile officials, including federal agriculture minister Gerry Ritz and former prime minister Brian Mulroney warning that TPP would not come to fruition without it. No TPA meant Congress could have rolled back key provisions of the deal.
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Now, with fast-track authority firmly secured, talks are expected to heat up again this summer, with some reports saying the negotiations could wrap up for good by August.
International trade minister Ed Fast brushed off that timeline as mere “speculation” in an interview with CTV’s Question Period over the weekend.
Here in Canada, the rapid fire developments on the TPP file have prompted a flurry of discussion and debate about the future of Canada’s supply managed sectors: eggs, poultry and dairy.
Australia, New Zealand and the United States are all demanding more access to Canada’s protected markets, demands that Canadian officials were well aware of when Canada formally joined the TPP negotiations in October 2012.
On June 26, prime minister Stephen Harper told reporters in Quebec City a TPP deal could be reached without undermining supply management, but he insisted it was “essential” Canada be included in the final deal.
“I believe these negotiations are going to establish what will become the basis of the international trading network in Asia Pacific. It is essential in my view that Canada be part of that, that the Canadian economy be part of that,” Harper said.
“At the same time, we are working to protect our system of supply management and our farmers in other sectors.”
It’s a message few in Canada’s supply managed sectors accept. They fear TPP could mark the end of supply management.
Dairy Farmers of Canada recently launched a petition and online campaign, called the Milkle Down Effect, warning the country’s dairy sector is facing increased pressure from foreign interests. More than 1,900 signatures have been gathered since the petition launched June 18.
Once considered a political third rail, the shifting political spectrum around supply management now has Canada’s opposition parties looking to make the system an election issue.
In a letter to the prime minister June 26, NDP leader Tom Mulcair called on Harper to “commit to defend supply management in its entirety and reassure Canadians that it will be protected in all future negotiations.”
Canadian farmers, he said, have been subjected to “a climate of uncertainty” that the prime minister “must respond to.”
For his part, Ritz, who has repeatedly said Canada will not be bullied into making concessions on the agriculture file, has been noticeably silent on the latest TPA developments in the United States.
In past interviews, Ritz has repeatedly stressed the U.S. must secure TPA and be willing to budge on its own agricultural subsidies before Canada engaged in serious conservation about its agriculture markets.
The political timing of the TPA and TPP developments are less than ideal for the federal Conservatives. Canada’s supply managed sectors are a powerful political lobby group that is rapidly mobilizing as TPP talks heat up.
Supply management is also now a critical wedge issue in key political regions, including rural Ontario and Quebec, which political pundits have long identified as critical battlegrounds in the upcoming federal election.
Then there’s the concerns of all of Canada’s export-reliant agriculture industries, such as pork, beef, wine and grain, all of whom will be hit if Canada is left out of the TPP trade deal.
The 12 nations involved in the TPP negotiations encompass 40 percent of the world’s economy, with countries like Japan and the U.S. significant trading markets for Canadian agricultural goods.
The Conservatives are well aware that those interests — and votes — must be protected too, launching a delicate political dance that comes just months before an election the polls say is still anyone’s to win.
