The bombastic and unpredictable American president often makes big promises that fall short. However, it appears Donald Trump has helped deliver a miraculous electoral turnaround that he didn’t promise — the return of a Liberal government for Canada.
While a Conservative victory seemed all but assured just a few months ago, the Liberal party lost a great deal of its unpopular baggage when Justin Trudeau resigned and the party elected Mark Carney as leader in a landslide.
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Trump’s trade threats and his comments about making Canada the 51st state sealed the deal. Mark Carney had the opportunity to appear Prime Ministerial by speaking up for Canada and tapping into the anti-American sentiment.
Eventually, Carney was able to have a phone conversation with Trump and since then Trump seems to have stopped talking about the annexation of Canada. He has also spared Canada and Mexico from the worst of his tariff policies. This has been a huge gift to Liberal re-election prospects.
While Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to draw huge crowds to his rallies, polling numbers point to a fourth term for the scandal-plagued Liberals. Unless the polls are incredibly wrong or Carney shoots himself in the foot in the last couple weeks of the campaign, it looks like the Liberals will again form government.
They’ve been assisted by a collapse in NDP support. It seems Trudeau discontent has tainted NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh more than it has the Liberal Party. Plus, many NDP supporters will vote Liberal for fear of a Conservative government.
The Liberals have taken many planks from the Conservative platform. The consumer carbon tax has been reduced to zero, they’re talking about a massive home building plan and fossil fuels are no longer being portrayed as completely evil.
Farmers in Western Canada have overwhelmingly been Conservative supporters. For many, another four years of Liberal government will feel like defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. The Liberals will have to work hard to avoid an increase in western alienation.
While the Carney platform sounds more right-wing and business oriented than his predecessor’s policies, will the actions match the words or will policy again shift to the left once the party is returned to government?
A large percentage of voters make their ballot decisions based on their perception of the leaders rather than past performance or policy considerations. Carney typically comes across as reasoned and calm while Poilievre is seen reciting the same old slogans.
From an agricultural perspective, neither leader has addressed the 100 per cent Chinese tariffs on canola oil, canola meal and peas. With China and the U.S. in a no-holds-barred, tit-for-tat trade war, an opportunity should exist for Canada to reach a path forward with the Chinese. Too bad this hasn’t become an election issue.
Whichever party forms government on April 28 will have to deal with Trump and his administration to negotiate the terms of a new trade agreement. From the president’s comments, it seems likely that Canada’s supply management system, particularly the dairy sector will be a target.
All the major parties profess unflagging support for supply management. All of them fear the dairy lobby. However, it’s hard to imagine a new trade deal that doesn’t further open the border to American dairy products.
Canada faces massive issues. As unpalatable as another Liberal term may sound to disgruntled Conservative supporters, the years ahead could be tough ones for whatever party forms government.
Kevin Hursh is an agricultural journalist, consultant and farmer. He can be reached by e-mail at kevin@hursh.ca.
