Will there be a new minister responsible for the Canadian Wheat Board this year? Will BST finally be approved for dairy herds?
Will there be a changing of the guard in Ottawa’s farm lobby establishment?
The temptation at the start of every new political year is to boldly predict how events will unfold.
Since politics is so predictably unpredictable, it offers the fortune-teller an easy excuse if things do not come to pass as forecast: really, how could anyone have guessed that?
With that caveat in mind, following are some predictions about how 1999 could unfold:
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- The farm lobby – this is the easy one. Six-year president Jack Wilkinson retires from the Canadian Federation of Agriculture position in late February, likely to be replaced by Manitoba turkey producer Bob Friesen.
- The cabinet – mid-term in his second mandate, prime minister Jean ChrŽtien will shuffle his cabinet. Don’t be surprised if natural resources minister Ralph Goodale is willing to give up his Canadian Wheat Board responsibility, now that reform and elections are over.
Winnipeg MP John Harvard would be a logical replacement.
- Farm safety nets – when federal and provincial ministers meet in July in Saskatchewan, they will agree in principle to a new “third line of defence” safety net program patterned after the details being worked out now for the 1999 emergency aid package. By then, rising hog prices may offer a glimmer of hope that it won’t cost taxpayers as much as some feared.
- Bovine Growth Hormone – it is unlikely Health Canada will approve Monsanto’s bid for a BGH product this year or in the foreseeable future. More likely, the health minister will accept the critics’ point that the spotlight should shine for awhile on the bureau of veterinary drugs and how it does its work.
- Trade policy – with the next round of world trade talks starting in late 1999, Ottawa will produce its opening bargaining position in early autumn. Expect it to be an uneasy alliance of export and import interests that satisfies neither exporters nor supply management.
It will proclaim both increased export access and continued high domestic protective tariffs to be part of Canada’s “balanced” position, but once bargaining begins, the weight will be on the export access side.
- The federal budget – while finance minister Paul Martin will use the February budget to note Ottawa’s two-year, $900 million commitment to farm aid, it likely will not include any permanent additional funding until agriculture ministers figure out program design.
- Leadership – despite his suggestions to the contrary, prime minister ChrŽtien will be privately planning this year to retire before the next election, expected in 2001. His potential successors will quietly canvas potential supporters this year.
And do not consider Paul Martin a sure bet to replace ChrŽtien, unless the finance minister is prepared to leave Quebec. For more than a century, the Liberals have alternated leaders between Quebec and English Canada.
