CANADIAN politicians and farm leaders are celebrating what was accomplished in Doha, Qatar last week, but Canadian farmers should be cautious in their optimism.
The 142 members of the World Trade Organization agreed only to launch a new round of world trade talks. They did not strike any deals or reach real trade compromises.
The agenda has been set. It remains to be seen whether issues will be dealt with in the most positive way for Canada.
The usual international political agendas must be dealt with, as well as the usual propaganda, brinkmanship and last-minute concessions that force deals to be made.
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The timeline for concluding talks – March 31, 2003, in the case of agricultural negotiations – must be added to the time required to implement changes.
That means Canadian farmers will need government support and assistance to survive until a new trade climate evolves.
Pressure will be exerted on Canada to eliminate its supply management system and change, if not eliminate, the Canadian Wheat Board.
With sweat barely dry on the brows of negotiators, there are already different interpretations of a last minute change made to gain Europe’s approval of the agenda.
The line “without prejudging the outcome of the negotiations, we commit ourselves to comprehensive negotiations” has been celebrated by France as meaning the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy and farm subsidies will not be endangered.
The United States, reacting to the same line, shrugged it off as a political solution with no added meaning, required only to get EU support.
“In no negotiations do you prejudge the outcome,” said U.S. agriculture secretary Ann Veneman.
As for timelines, past trade talks have proven that deadlines can be floating targets. Sometimes they are missed by years. And it will take years for the full impacts of a new agreement to be felt.
In all that time, the wheat board and Canada’s supply management systems will remain targets for the EU and U.S. They will require constant defence by Canada’s trade negotiators, or the next round will be more detrimental than advantageous to this country.
Canadian farmers should be optimistic about Qatar’s developments. There are promising agricultural issues on the table: improvements to market access, reduction or phase-out of export subsidies and reductions in trade-distorting domestic support programs.
If the Cairns Group and Third World countries continue pushing for changes in such areas as agricultural dumping, the EU and U.S. may finally end their subsidy wars.
That could finally offer relief to Canadian farmers who have suffered too long from low grain prices caused by trade-distorting domestic and export subsidy programs.
