President-elect Donald Trump.
It’s safe to say few folks in Ottawa expected to hear those four words Nov. 8 as they gathered in pubs and bars across the city to watch the results of the United States election roll in.
Ottawa is a town obsessed with politics. For many here, election night is like Game 7 of a Stanley Cup final on steroids.
At the local Heart in Crown pub in Ottawa’s Byward Market, bar staff had to repeatedly delay a live band performance as bar patrons watched the latest counts and state-by-state updates.
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Real Sports, one of Ottawa’s largest sports bars, had every big screen tuned into CNN, as politicos, many hoping for a Hillary Clinton victory, munched on chicken wings and tacos.
Post-election Ottawa remains stunned. The list of questions around what a Trump presidency means for Canada grows by the day.
There are, of course, the obvious questions, most of which revolve around trade. Canada and the United States share the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship. More than $47 billion in agricultural goods alone cross the border each year — making the U.S. our biggest trading partner.
Trump has called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) the “worst trade deal” in history and has vowed to tear up the agreement once in office, although some trade watchers are now saying they doubt that will actually happen. “Americanism, not globalism, will be our new credo,” Trump promised on the campaign trail.
Canada’s government has said it is open to renegotiating NAFTA, as has Canada’s ambassador to Washington, David MacNaughton.
Federal Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay has opted for a “wait-and-see” approach to the U.S. election outcome. “There’s a new government in place. The American people have spoken. Let’s just wait and see what develops before we jump to major conclusions,” he told reporters in Ottawa Nov. 10.
Ideologically, Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government could not be more different.
The Trudeau government has spent the past year trying to position itself as compassionate and open by welcoming thousands of Syrian refugees, taking a hard line on the environment file and pushing for a better relationship with the parliamentary press gallery.
Trump campaigned on the opposite side of many of these issues. He promised to ban future Muslim immigration, build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, pull out of a major international climate change accord and he has waged war with many news outlets.
Meanwhile in Canada, Conservative party leader Rona Ambrose has called on the prime minister to abandon his proposed carbon pricing plan given the U.S. election results — a plea echoed by Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.
Trudeau, per unwritten protocol, has invited the president-elect to Canada at his earliest convenience — a visit that, if accepted, is likely to trigger public protests.
Quietly, many in Ottawa wonder how the two administrations will be able to work together and they express worry about Canada’s future trade competitiveness if Trump follows through on promises to ease regulations on U.S. farms.
Trump has also repeatedly slammed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for “unnecessary” policies that target producers, the energy industry and other resources like coal. Trump has also tapped a climate change skeptic, Myron Ebell, to head his transition team for the agency.
Any cuts to red tape in the U.S. will be watched by Canadian farmers and industry, who are nervous they may not be able to compete with their U.S. counterparts.
Canada and the United States have been working for years via the Beyond the Border initiative to make it easier for goods to travel between the two countries. Whether that work will continue is anyone’s guess. The program is being audited by Canada’s auditor general with a report expected later this month.
Trump has also promised to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from the current 35 percent, a move some economists warn could jeopardize the ability of Canadian businesses to compete.
Federally, Canada’s corporate tax rate sits at 15 percent, one of the lowest in the world. However, the figure varies from province to province depending on provincial rates.
