PRESIDENT-elect Barack Obama has promised change for America. The man has invigorated a substantial portion of a massive electorate and given new enthusiasm to our southern neighbours. That is worthy of celebration.
However, results from the Nov. 4 U.S. election show most American farmers favoured the Republican party with their votes, in much the same way Canadian farmers voted for a conservative political approach in our own federal election.
Obama at this early stage lacks major support from the heartland for agriculture and trade policies he has articulated to date. His support came largely from cities and more heavily populated regions.
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On this side of the border, what might the Obama presidency mean for agriculture? It will depend on whether the new president implements his plans or modifies them.
- Support for Country of Origin Labelling: Obama likes COOL and in late September joined 26 other senators to request that the law be made even more stringent.
Since its implementation last month, COOL has been blamed in Canada for impeding cattle and hog trade and damaging producers’ incomes. Livestock groups have called on the Canadian government to launch a trade action against COOL as contrary to existing trade agreements.
These groups and the government will have to redouble objections to COOL because of Obama’s support. The Bush administration only grudgingly accepted it.
- Support for biofuel and fossil fuel alternatives: Obama wants to increase home-grown ethanol and biodiesel and improve infrastructure for its delivery. He seeks development of a cellulosic ethanol industry and more solar- and wind-power projects.
For Canada, continued support of the U.S. biofuel industry could boost this country’s efforts to develop its own production and infrastructure.
- Reopening trade agreements: Obama says he wants to amend the North American Free Trade agreement to strengthen labour and environment protections.
Implications for Canada will depend on the specifics, but measures to reduce American use of so-called “dirty oil” from the oil sands would have major implications for the economy, including agriculture.
Obama’s stance on World Trade Organization talks is less clear, other than intentions to obtain greater access for American goods. That’s what all countries want and failure to agree has stalled the talks.
In broad terms, Obama’s agricultural policies favour organic and sustainable agriculture, protection of family farms and land conservation. Implications for Canadian agriculture will depend on how and whether these views translate into action.
It’s the Democrats’ control of Congress that stands to be more problematic for Canada than a Democratic president. Democrats in Congress tend toward more protectionist policies and an insular approach. In these volatile economic times, such a Congress seems more likely to take a “batten down the hatches” stance at the potential expense of major trading partners.
The new political scenery will present challenges for Canada but likely also opportunities. Our politicians must solidify good working relationships and familiarize themselves with U.S. directions so this country can quickly act when needed.
Bruce Dyck, Terry Fries, Barb Glen, D’Arce McMillan and Ken Zacharias collaborate in the writing of Western Producer editorials.
