The trajectory of the United States’ comments on the North American Free Trade Agreement over the last few months has wavered so much that figuring out what’s ahead is difficult. But President Donald Trump has one tendency that may show the way. More on that below.
Trump has long vowed to tear up NAFTA, calling it a disaster.
But by late January, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the Trump administration was “not overly preoccupied with Canada in terms of much of their protectionism and much of the rhetoric they put out.”
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In February, Trump noted that “we have a very outstanding trade relationship with Canada. We’ll be tweaking (NAFTA). We’ll be doing certain things that will benefit both of our countries.”
But in late March a draft letter to Congress by acting U.S. Trade Representative Stephen Vaughn on NAFTA negotiations included “rules of origin,” which is what we know as country-of-origin labelling. Then in April, farmers in Wisconsin complained that Canada had closed a trade loophole, leaving an oversupply of ultra-filtered milk south of the border. Trump then assured that “we’re also going to stand up for our dairy farmers. Because in Canada some very unfair things have happened to our dairy farmers and others and we’re going to start working on that.”
Last week, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer triggered a process that would see NAFTA negotiations begin later this summer. Lighthizer’s letter to Congress mentioned farming twice, but only in passing.
“…we will continue to review elements of NAFTA and, where appropriate, update U.S. approaches to address challenges faced by U.S. consumers, businesses, farmers, ranches and workers in an increasingly global economy,” it said.
Then, in the last paragraph Lighthizer writes, “we are committed to concluding these negotiations with timely and substantive results for U.S. consumers, business, farmers, ranchers, and workers, consistent with U.S. priorities and the negotiating objectives established by the Congress in statute.”Â
While these words give reason to pause, they are far from the fighting words that Trump is infamous for.
Observers of the president note that he favours achievement over actual policy implications. If so, it may be that agriculture won’t be subject to the heavy-handedness that some fear.
