Manning takes gamble on a winning political hand

Preston Manning is the picture of careful planning – well-coifed, impeccably dressed, always in control of himself and his situation.

This is not the image of a gambler.

Yet last weekend, when Reformers, Conservatives and even the odd former Liberal, gathered in Ottawa to begin building a new conservative political party to challenge the Liberals, Manning proved to be very much the gambler.

Much of the attention has focused on his leadership gamble and it is real.

By promoting the death of the Reform party – which might properly be called Manning’s creation – he is opening his leadership to challenge.

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The early speculation is that Manning will have a difficult time being elected leader of the new party, if for no other reason than that in vote-rich Central Canada, he has come to symbolize the reasons Reform has not caught on.

It doesn’t matter how many times Manning says, and tries to show, that he is not a western homophobic anti-Quebec and immigrant bigot hell-bent on shoving a theology-tinged brand of fundamentalist dogma down Canadian throats.

That is how many easterners apparently see him.

Last weekend, pollster Conrad Winn warned that both Reform and the new party must live with that political fact, fair or not. Some of the rhetorical flourishes from the early days of Reform left the party with a permanent image of intolerance.

“You never get a second chance to leave a first impression,” Winn said.

But in truth, leadership status is not Manning’s greatest gamble in what he calls a historic moment – only the second attempt in almost 40 years to create a brand new national political party.

The real gamble is that the new party (the Reformatories, as the Liberals like to call them) will end up doing exactly the opposite of Manning’s dream.

Instead of being the vehicle to unite the anti-Liberal vote, it could split the conservative camp into three voices instead of two.

Many Reform MPs at last weekend’s Ottawa convention conceded that it is a scenario to be feared.

What if a new party forms but cannot finish off the Progressive Conservative party? That still leaves the conservative vote split two ways.

And what if some of the 45 percent at last week’s convention delegates who did not vote for a new party decide to continue the Reform party rather than allow some Central Canadian water into their western policy wine?

Then, there are three right-wing options and a Liberal party poised to govern for a generation. Manning, as well as a gambler, is also an optimist. He does not even publicly contemplate the possibility of an even more disunited right.

But in this game of political poker, history and contemporary events outside his control are dealing the cards. He figures inevitable future disenchantment with the Liberals will create the conditions for a winning hand.

But what if the infamous Dead Man’s Hand is dealt – black aces, black eights and the nine of diamonds – and Manning’s legacy is Liberal government?

Pass the valium, Sandra.