Glacier FarmMedia – The French poet, novelist and playwright Victor Hugo is the first person known to use the term “loose cannon” in print.
He was referring to an actual loose cannon that, improperly lashed down, rolled out of control, damaged the ship, and prevented his protagonist, the Marquis de Lantenac, from landing ashore in Britanny to lead a rebellion.
These days the literal loose cannon of yore has been displaced by the figurative loose cannon — the unpredictable and uncontrolled individual who can create chaos wherever they go.
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Canada now has a loose cannon of epic proportions next door. Donald Trump is, to stretch the metaphor, not a “crack eight-pounder” found on the deck of an early sailing ship of the Royal Navy. He’s more like one of Saddam Hussein’s super guns that were designed to hurl projectiles the size of a small car as far as 750 kilometres.
He’s capable of doing significant damage through his random actions and out-sized presence.
This unpredictability will be hard for Canada and the world to manage if Trump follows through on recent threats.
The headline grabber was a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican products. It certainly got everyone’s attention on this side of the border, but how likely is it to be implemented?
At first glance, you’d think there would be none. It’s not like Canadian or Mexican producers would pay for these tariffs. That bill would be due from U.S. consumers, and many things they buy every day would suddenly get more expensive. It’s hardly the desire of an inflation-fighting president.
It would hit the U.S. business community too. The global economy is tightly interwoven, and those businesses frequently rely on imported products as inputs. Their costs would likewise rise.
It would also open the U.S. to countervailing tariffs under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which could catch those businesses in an unpleasant vise as they’re squeezed from both sides and their products become more expensive to consumers abroad.
But it’s also fair to say that Trump has proven himself willing to double down on policies that don’t always follow logic, lending credibility to the threat.
One thing is sure: there will be unexpected twists and turns along the way.
Will Trump have enough support in his own party to move forward? Will calmer heads prevail? Will Canada and Mexico be able to work together? Or will the U.S. successfully play the two nations off against each other?
In no small part, chaos seems to be part of Trump’s game plan. A confused opponent will be more readily defeated. And perhaps that’s the most important lesson we should learn.
If we respond the way Trump hopes, we’ll be running around, unable to mount a reasoned and rational defence of our own interests. But if we keep our powder dry, and lash our own cannons on deck, we might weather this storm.
We should mount a charm offensive to the south, where we’re seen to be addressing issues our U.S. neighbours raise. We should lean into the trade machinery and use any USMCA dispute resolution mechanisms at our disposal.
A thornier question is who our allies will be in this fight. The Mexican government, on paper, should be an ally. But during the first Trump presidency, Mexico engaged in bipartisan negotiations resulting in Canada being presented with a “take it or leave it” deal and little recourse.
One thing is certain. We can’t look desperate, or we’ll spend the next four years on the run.
Gord Gilmour is a senior editor with Glacier FarmMedia.
