A chance encounter with a Liberal organizer on the way back to Ottawa from Saskatchewan last weekend brought home the unbridled optimism of this political season in federal politics.
“I think there are a couple of seats there we can take,” he said. “The Conservatives aren’t flying.”
Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is playing cagey over whether he wants an election. It is in his hands.
The Conservatives will need support from at least one opposition party to get its session-opening throne speech approved after Oct. 16.
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In Quebec, separatist Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe says unless prime minister Stephen Harper meets five conditions, he will vote to force an election. Support for supply management he can check off as done but others on the list, not so much.
NDP leader Jack Layton seems to be itching for a fight. A surprise by-election victory in Quebec last week has electoral sugarplums dancing in his head.
Meanwhile, Conservatives are insisting with a straight face they really don’t want an election, even though byelection results in Quebec gave them momentum.
Such is the excited state of federal politics these days leading up to the next session of Parliament. The polls show Canadians are content with the current dog’s breakfast Parliament but all parties dream that the polls are wrong and their secret strength could win the day.
It will be amazing, however, if any of the four parliamentary parties actually feels confident enough to orchestrate an election this autumn.
But in such unstable times, parties can stumble into unwanted territory.
Prime minister Joe Clark’s bumbling into a disastrous 1980 election comes to mind.
If the improbable is to happen, several agricultural issues actually are sensitive enough to play a role.
If prime minister Stephen Harper allows his ideological disdain for the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly to override his political good sense, he could try to force through legislation to end the barley monopoly.
His only hope of victory would be support from the BQ but that would be iffy at best. Self-preservation instincts will likely prevail and the issue will stay off the government agenda, but opposition parties have insisted it would be a make-or-break issue.
Would Harper be willing to test their resolve when they appear weak on other issues?
And what happens if the improbable occurs and negotiations at the World Trade Organization begin to careen toward a conclusion this autumn? Any final deal will involve compromises on supply management protections and all three opposition parties have staked their ground on defending supply management.
The Conservative government – actually, any government – would not walk away from a broad trade deal. Harper, despite his support of a WTO result, can only hope it does not happen before an election.
Would a WTO deal and a Conservative decision to sign trigger an election?
Not likely since all parties understand broader economic issues would be at play.
But in the fevered build up to the beginning of the parliamentary Olympics, no juicy speculation seems out of place.
Hey, maybe the Liberals will pick up some Saskatchewan seats.
