The almost unbelievable flooding in Alberta is unlikely to be a once in a century event.
A late melt in the mountains after a remarkably long winter, mixed with 250 millimetres of rain when 100 mm were expected, have created a tragic and sudden disaster of rare proportions. It may not be so rare in the future.
Rural communities were inundated, and even mighty Calgary was more or less shut down. Bridges and roads were washed out, fields drowned, livestock threatened, people rescued and deaths reported in the wake of the rising rivers.
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If you combine this disaster with the large numbers of floods in Manitoba and Saskatchewan over the last few years, as well as the recent uncharacteristic weather in parts of the United States, Europe and Asia, it is clear that climate change, whether human-made or not, is here.
The other thing that is clear is that drought is not necessarily the worst outcome. Extreme weather is, of whatever kind.
We can’t point fingers at the engineers who built bridges and roads that would hold up to our former climate. There’s no point in shaking fists at former governments, when most of the implications of climate change have become apparent only in the last 10 to 15 years.
The need for better warning systems, better forecasting, better infrastructure or better disaster relief was not entirely foreseeable. Despite the difficulties, Alberta’s emergency response was put into action quickly, and the province’s agencies deserve congratulations.
But it’s time to batten down the hatches and address these problems. Engineers, governments, industry and property owners must start to take into account what we know now.
Those who want to build on flood plains and along rivers and ocean shores must think carefully. These are increasingly dangerous places, and any disaster relief program should keep those personal decisions in context.
It is still difficult to see how farm and rangeland can ever be protected from pounding rain, swollen rivers or droughts so severe that even irrigation is compromised.
Drainage and water storage will mitigate flooding and drought, but that can only go so far in the face of disaster.
However, earlier warnings would go a long way toward helping make difficult decisions, and an improved forecasting system must therefore be the first item on the agendas of Canadian governments.
Disaster relief via non-ad hoc financial assistance must come next. Governments cannot rely on the private insurance system to protect its citizens. Indeed, there is no overland flooding coverage in Canada. When it’s this bad, help must come from the institutions with the deepest pockets.
It is clearly time to re-invest in long-term environmental and climate research. Universities are stepping up to provide more research, partly with public funding, but Canada is far behind on forecasting technology — even precipitation measurement technology. Models for future climate changes must be forthcoming. This is crucial to every citizen, but even more so to agriculture. If we expect a wet future, that must be considered in crop development and technology. If we expect a dry one, the same thing applies.
The fourth element to stabilizing systems during and after disaster is infrastructure improvement, and therein lies the biggest financial challenge. Yet it must be done. People in Alberta have been stranded and swept away. We must take a massive inventory and evaluate escape routes, bridges, roads and communications technology.
We need to plan our communities, infrastructure and lives to be more resilient to the events that an increasingly volatile climate are throwing at us.
