The new Parliament will be one which celebrates the first balanced budget in more than 30 years and which confronts Quebec’s next bid for “freedom.”
In some political quarters, it is being viewed as a critical turning point in Canada’s history. Yet, curiously, it has been more than 40 years since the launch of a federal election campaign carried so little anticipation of change.
In 1953, Louis St. Laurent’s Liberals went to the people with a huge majority, 18 consecutive years of Liberal government behind them and little likelihood that George Drew’s Tories would win.
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Expectations were correct. St. Laurent swept to victory in the last of the predictable elections.
Then followed a series of elections characterized either by high excitement or unexpected results: 1957 and 1958, with John Diefenbaker’s amazing victories; 1962, 1963 and 1965 with unpredictable Tory and Liberal minority governments; 1968 with the “Trudeaumania;” 1972, with the closest result ever; 1974 with the return of a Liberal majority promising action; 1979, with a Tory minority; 1980 and the return of the Trudeau Liberals with a promise to deal with Quebec; 1984 and the excitement of the historic Tory sweep; 1988 and the uncertainty of the free-trade election; 1993 and the near-collapse of the Tories.
This year also may produce a surprising result for the history books. But as politicians hit the hustings this week looking for votes, that was not the expectation.
Liberals were comfortably in the lead. The separatist Bloc QuŽbecois appeared poised to win most Quebec seats again.
The most interesting early speculation centred on the fight for the title of “English Canadian Opposition party.”
Would Reform hold its western seats and make a modest Central Canadian breakthrough? Would the NDP find its voice again in Parliament by electing at least 12 MPs to win official party status?
Would the Conservatives climb out of the two-seat electoral slough assigned them by voters last time? Will Jean Charest be taken seriously, or viewed merely as a distraction, a Brian Mulroney disciple with big hair and right-wing ideas stolen from Reform?
For political junkies, this is relatively thin gruel. It gets worse when the politicians speculate about likely agricultural issues in the 36th Parliament.
End-of-Parliament interviews with MPs last week produced this list of likely topics that will confront the new crop of MPs: completing the Liberals’ failed attempt to reform the Canadian Wheat Board; defending marketing boards in global trade talks; trying to put some predictability into the grain transportation system; wrestling with cost recovery; funding farm safety nets.
In other words, the 36th Parliament will confront many of the same issues that the 35th Parliament debated.
And, unless the polls are wildly wrong or the election campaign changes the political topography, a similar cast of characters will be the key players in familiar debates.
Of course, all this could change if voters grow tired of being taken for granted and decide to become a bit unpredictable.
