With grain prices depressed, returns per acre are looking dismal on all the major crops with some significantly worse than others.
The yields in the table below come from the Aug. 28 Statistics Canada production estimate for Saskatchewan. Prices come from publicly available sources, but note that prices vary by day and according to the buyer. Prices are in either dollars per bushel or cents per pound as appropriate.
Expenses come from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s 2025 Crop Planning Guide. Note that the guide assumes a higher-than-average level of inputs. Both operating and fixed costs are taken into account. For most crops, the costs are for the dark brown soil zone, but oats are from the black soil zone, with chickpeas and mustard from the brown soil zone.
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With current grain prices, all net returns are negative with some showing startling losses. Yellow peas show the worst net return with durum and Canary seed not much better.
The best returns, in other words the smallest losses are for flaxseed, canola and mustard. Despite the Chinese tariffs on canola seed as well as canola oil and meal, the crop is still showing one of the better returns.
I did the same analysis last year for this column and the differences one year to the next are interesting.
Canary seed last year was 35 cents a pound as compared to this year’s 22 cents. As a result, Canary seed last year was at a breakeven net return per acre.
The canola price one year ago was a bit lower than now and the projected yield was also lower, so returns were worse.
Kabuli chickpeas were a star last year with a price of 42 cents a pound and a net return per acre of $156. At this year’s 30 cents per pound, the net return is negative $154 per acre.
Green lentils topped the profitability list last year at $207 per acre on the strength of 50 cent per pound prices. This year at a dismal 23 cents per pound, the analysis shows a loss of $176 an acre.
Green peas were profitable last year at $14 a bushel. At this year’s $10 a bushel, they are showing a big loss, although considerably better than yellow peas.
This analysis is just a snapshot in time. Yield estimates will change and many expect them to move up a bit. Prices are dismal now, but will hopefully improve. Many producers will have had much better prices locked in with forward contracts.
However, at this juncture, the outlook is rather grim for those with only an average crop.
