Guebert is an agricultural columnist based in Illinois.
Maybe the unseasonably hot temperatures that blistered the Midwest most of September can be traced to global warming, solar flares or the high volume of hot air blowing westward from Washington, D.C.
If you farm anything anywhere in the U.S., however, you know the origin: scorchingly hot grain futures markets in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.
The corn, soybean and wheat markets were on fire and, according to many market watchers, most will likely simmer well into winter.
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Leading the heat wave was the wheat wave. December Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures exploded from $6.15 US per bu. on Aug. 20 to near $9.50 by the end of September, up a smoking 37 percent in just over a month.
Heat, indeed, was the driver.
Australia’s 2008 crop continues to shrivel. American wheat growers, approaching the planting season for next year’s hard and soft winter crops, face dry to very dry seeding conditions.
Canada, Argentina and the Ukraine, the other big growers around, face their own weather woes.
So how high will wheat fly?
Few market analysts can say because few foresaw September’s moon shot.
More importantly, the aforementioned market drivers are still firmly gripping the wheel.
If growing conditions in Australia persist and the 2008 crop here gets dusted in, the uncertainties pushing this market will keep it glowing into New Year’s and beyond.
The light generated by wheat will reflect brightly on corn and soybean prices, adding to solid gains achieved during the early, hot harvest.
Corn, by comparison, was the toy poodle in September, up only 10.5 percent.
Yet December futures putting on 36 cents in a counter-seasonal climb into the teeth of harvest pressure is a clear signal that this poodle can hunt.
September’s hot markets should not lull farmers into believing all’s well until winter.
Some of the fat carries in today’s post-New Year’s cash bids should remind all that no one’s ever lost money taking a profit.
