CONSIDER industry minister Brian Tobin’s unexpected resignation Jan. 14
as just the opening act in what will be a turbulent political year.
Within days, the political temperature will rise sharply in Ottawa as
MPs return to Parliament Hill after their extended Christmas break. The
year begins with myriad questions:
The prime minister planned a cabinet shuffle Jan. 15? At press time,
its magnitude was unknown. If major, will agriculture minister Lyle
Vanclief still be minister when you read this?
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Will Jean Chrétien stay on as Liberal leader and prime minister, or
decide that his three consecutive majorities are enough of a legacy?
Can Stockwell Day reclaim the leadership of the Canadian Alliance in
April when the CA holds a leadership vote?
And will the conservative parties and splinters aligned against the
dominant Liberals find a way to unite this year?
Questions come easier than answers, and Tobin’s Monday shocker
illustrates the dangers of prediction in a sector as volatile as
politics. Today’s predictions can quickly become tomorrow’s
embarrassing error.
Still, despite those caveats, evidence points to some likely answers.
Barring a health or legal catastrophe, Chrétien will stick around for
now.
The next six months are packed with political milestones for the prime
minister. By June 12, Chrétien will pass Louis St. Laurent, Robert
Borden and Brian Mulroney to become Canada’s fifth longest-serving
prime minister.
On June 18, he celebrates the 40th anniversary of his first election to
Parliament. He isn’t going anywhere soon.
But he is shuffling his cabinet and that puts Vanclief’s future on the
line.
There is speculation in Ottawa that the minister will be dropped or
shuffled. Maybe, but odds are that he will keep his job with a mandate
to try to lead a federal-provincial reconstruction of national
agricultural policy.
This is the riskiest prediction.
The Canadian Alliance leadership also is far from predictable but with
the one-member-one-vote election system, odds are that Day can reclaim
his old job, particularly if the religious and conservative groups that
worked for him in 2000 sell their thousands of memberships again.
Finally, there is the question of whether the conservative opposition
splinters can unite. If candidates Grant Hill or Diane Ablonczy win in
April, chances improve.
But unless they are prepared to capitulate to a Tory takeover, Clark’s
presence as Conservative leader would appear to be a roadblock. He
thinks he is in the opposition driver’s seat.
In at least one year-end interview, the former prime minister appeared
to suggest it is possible he will be prime minister again. He also
seemed not to have accepted the fact that in 2000, he led the
Conservatives to their lowest vote percentage in Canadian history.
“Of course I’d like to be prime minister,” he said. “I’ve led the party
to defeat once and I’ve led it to victory and I don’t want to be the
cause of being defeated again.”
Actually, he led the party to defeat twice, 1980 and 2000. For the
right to unite, Clark will have to be convinced that he lost in 2000
and that it was the best two out of three.
