HE CAME, he left, nothing really changed.
By the time this column is published, president George W. Bush will have made his first official visit to Ottawa, told Canadians how much he values their friendship, privately twisted Paul Martin’s arm to bring Canada more into line with American foreign policy objectives and then flown away.
He may have promised that he will do what he can to see the American border open to live young Canadian ruminants by spring.
No promises, though, since that really is a decision for the regulatory process and possibly the courts than it is for the White House.
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Martin likely will have called for fast action on the border and urged the United States to be a firm supporter of a trade liberalization agreement at the World Trade Organization.
Bush’s plane will hardly be off the runway on the way to Halifax for a Dec. 1 speech to thank Atlantic Canadians for their generosity to stranded American travelers after Sept. 11, 2001 when the professional analyzers of such events – self-interested political spinners, academics and newspaper columnists with space to fill – will begin the predictable orgy of comment.
Bush never came when Jean Chrétien was in office. Is this a coup for Martin?
The Bush administration wants Canada to do more in Iraq and to become a partner in a missile defence system.
Did Martin succumb with a wink and a nod that all will be well in the end?
Did Bush offer meaningful and believable assurances that BSE border protectionism soon will end?
The visit to Ottawa, less than a month after his Nov. 2 election, was undoubtedly meant to signal that he is happier to have Martin in office than that guy who refused to send Canadian troops to Iraq last year. What was his name? Poutine?
But the fact that the trip was so hastily organized and included only a few hours of direct talks between Martin and Bush between public appearances and a state dinner signals that nothing of substance was to be debated or decided.
The new U.S. administration and its cabinet will not be sworn in until Jan. 20 and no major decisions can be expected until then.
It was a courtesy call.
Think of it as wallpaper, meant to give the room an attractive appearance but doing nothing to let the viewer know if the walls underneath are sound or decayed.
But perhaps there will be some results.
The presence of Bush on Canadian soil might finally curb the Conservative insistence that the absence of a presidential visit is a sure sign Canada is irrelevant.
The Conservatives also suggest that the relationship with the superpower next door is so damaged that Canada is at peril and that a decade of Liberal government has undone the close relationship that Canada must have with the U.S.
They have been trying to walk a fine and complicated line on relations with the U.S., arguing that Canada must be firmly in the camp of American allies while not appearing to be a colony.
The opposition last year sharply criticized Chrétien’s decision not to go to Iraq.
Last week, rookie Conservative defence critic Gordon O’Connor, a retired military officer, said subsequent events have proven Chrétien made the correct decision.
