The assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump will have wide-ranging ramifications, including important impacts on Canadian agriculture.
As farmers, we tend to fixate on the weather, crop development and the direction of grain prices, but international events such as this shooting set the stage for the years ahead.
Any doubt about Trump regaining the presidency has now been eliminated. Current president Joe Biden is old and frail with obvious mental lapses. Trump was already leading in the polls and will now gain a great deal of sympathy for being grazed by the sniper’s bullet. He’ll be emboldened and coast to a big win in November.
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The United States is a country divided. Civil unrest is a definite possibility. Can you imagine the furor and finger pointing had Trump been killed?
While Biden and the Democrats are not overly trade friendly, the Republicans under Trump will be even more protectionist. One of Trump’s stated policies is a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods.
When in office last time, Trump pushed for a renegotiated North American trade agreement. A mandatory review is less than two years away. With many tensions between the U.S. and Mexico, it will be tough sledding for negotiators to salvage a workable deal.
The recent Mexican election resulted in the first female president, a person closely aligned with the previous administration, not exactly a soul mate with Trump.
It’s unclear what a Trump administration will mean to biofuel policy. Without ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, the world would be awash in grain and prices would be much lower. Minor policy changes in this arena will have a big influence on demand and therefore prices in the years ahead.
Trump has strong support in farm states and provided large trade compensation payments to farmers during a previous trade spat with China. American farmers are likely to receive greater support than Canadian producers should grain prices continue to retreat.
In Canada, Liberal support under Justin Trudeau has cratered and the Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre appears ready to form the next government.
Trump and Trudeau had a strained relationship. Will Poilievre have any better rapport? With Trump’s America first approach, will it really matter?
It’s an understatement to say Trump evokes strong emotions. People either love him or hate him. However, it’s difficult to predict the direction of his policy initiatives.
The Russian offensive against Ukraine continues. Based on what Republicans have been saying, a Trump administration will probably temper U.S. military support for Ukrainian defence.
Shunned by many nations, Russia has become increasingly friendly with China. On canola, peas and barley, Canadian exports to China have been slipping with Russian product becoming increasingly competitive.
While most countries condemn Russian aggression, China does not. Also noteworthy, India seems happy to continue Russian trade relations. Dollars apparently matter more than ethics. India is a market with much more growth potential than China due to its much younger population.
The other huge growth region is Africa. Whenever we hear about Africa, it’s usually bad news, either famine or civil war or both. However, it’s a quickly growing population as long as they can afford to buy what we’d like to sell them.
A potential bright spot for Canadian trade came with the recent Labour Party win in the United Kingdom. Trade talks should resume, and that could be a glimmer of hope for Canadian beef exports.
International events tend to directly or indirectly come back to the farm.
Kevin Hursh is an agricultural journalist, consultant and farmer. He can be reached by e-mail at kevin@hursh.ca.
