Three years ago, when the federal government decided to strip most subsidy supports away from grain farmers, it got lucky.
Grain markets and the weather co-operated, providing enough high-priced supplies to mask the immediate effects of the end of the Crow subsidy and the slashing of other safety net supports.
More than one Opposition MP, amazed at the easy ride the Liberals received, quipped: “God must be a Liberal.”
Now, it seems fair to speculate that the Almighty may be reconsidering His political allegiance. The Liberals may be running out of grace.
Read Also
Growth plates are instrumental in shaping a horse’s life
Young horse training plans and workloads must match their skeletal development. Failing to plan around growth plates can create lifelong physical problems.
If present trends continue on two fronts – politics and the weather – the government may face the farmer uproar it dodged in 1995-96.
With large swaths of the Prairies bone-dry, there are growing concerns about the possibility of drought-stunted crops.
And with both Americans and Europeans threatening renewal of an export subsidy war, the prospect of more price suppression in an already depressed market is growing more real by the week.
If either or both of these threats grows into a reality, tens of thousands of farmers will feel the hit in lower income.
Then, the government will feel the pressure for help and it will be ill-equipped to respond.
This is a government that has vowed not to return to ad hoc subsidies.
This is a government that has cut support programs to a level inadequate to deal with the kind of hardship a drought or trade war would bring.
So what are the government’s options?
On the trade side, it is to lobby vigorously to try to dissuade both sides.
On that front, the Liberals are impressively vigorous.
At least three ministers (trade, agriculture and Canadian Wheat Board) and officials have been working the phones, urging both to back away from skirmishes which could escalate.
They have been reminding all who will listen that the last export subsidy war cost governments billions of dollars and in CWB minister Ralph Goodale’s words … “accomplished exactly the square root of zero in terms of market conditions, market access or market share.”
And they have been arguing that while legal under international trade rules, a resumption of export subsidies would violate the “spirit” of the deal.
But for the moment, all the Canadian government can do is plead with the big trade players that they resist the temptation to use their larger treasuries to try to buy market share.
If the Americans and Europeans ignore the free advice, the Liberals will be faced with an unhappy choice – open the public wallet in violation of their anti-subsidy pledges, or stick to their guns and watch a major industry wither in the crossfire.
As to the other looming problem, there are even fewer options.
In fact, the next time you see a prairie Liberal at prayer, it may not signal a plea for forgiveness or even rain.
It may be an earth-to-heaven call for the re-establishment of that 1995 alliance that worked so well.
