WINNIPEG – Weather analysts at the Canadian Wheat Board predict a cooler and drier summer this year.
Add concerns about grain transportation changes, late seeding, prices and pests, and this could mean fewer seeded acres than earlier Statistics Canada predictions and lower yields than last year.
With updated estimates of seeded area, the board predicted last week that 47.38 million tonnes of grain will be produced in Western Canada this year – down 1.9 percent from last year.
The El Nino weather phenomenon is fading, which tends to lead to drier conditions, said analyst Ray Garnett. Other El Nino “die-out” years were 1980, 1983 and 1988.
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No extremes
But Garnett said this summer is unlikely to be extremely cold or dry.
Extremely hot summers tend to occur when sea surface temperatures take a dive, but this year, they’re falling slowly, he said. Flood monsoons in India often correspond to hot summers on the Prairies. However, monsoons are forecast as normal this year.
The board’s estimates are preliminary as weather conditions through the main growing season could affect yield and production estimates.
But as of June 5, the board predicted wheat production will be down more than four percent from last year, with yields around 29 bushels per acre. Canola production is expected to drop by more than seven percent, with yields at around 21.5 bushels per acres.
Production of durum, oats and rye will each fall by more than 20 percent from last year primarily because of fewer acres planted, said analyst Don Bonner, but yields of durum and rye will also be down this year.
Barley and flax production is expected to rise this year by about 13 percent and 22 percent respectively. Bonner said high prices, strong domestic demand and late seeding encouraged more farmers to plant barley this year. He said while more acres will be seeded to flax than last year, some farmers may have been scared away by low prices in the past couple of months.
Bonner estimated production of special crops would drop by 8.5 percent overall, although some crops like feed peas will increase.
According to board estimates, the wheat crop should start ripening in mid-August in southwestern Sask-atchewan, but will ripen in late August in Alberta despite that province’s earlier planting dates.
“One thing this type of exercise points out is that summer growing conditions are certainly as important or even more important than planting dates across the Prairies,” Bonner said.
