MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) — Warm winter weather and fewer storm disruptions at ports have pushed expectations for Russia’s 2017-18 grain exports to record levels, with room for further increases, analysts and industry players said.
The previously forecast 45 million tonnes of exports in the 2017-18 marketing year, which began on July 1, was seen by some as the limit of capacity for one of the world’s biggest grain exporters.
However, most recent estimates have consolidated at about 47 million tonnes and on Feb. 1 agriculture consultancy Sovecon upgraded its forecast to 48 million tonnes.
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“In theory, it could be up to 50 million tonnes or even higher,” said SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov.
Exports have been helped by warm winter weather in Russia’s Azov Sea ports and later than usual use of ice escorts, which slow supplies and make shipments more expensive, he said.
There have also been fewer storms affecting Black Sea ports, and farmers squeezed by low domestic prices are less willing to hold back on sales ahead of the start of spring sowing.
Black Sea ports are showing “an unprecedented level of activity,” said Dmitry Rylko at IKAR, another Moscow agriculture consultancy.
Arkady Zlochevsky, the head of the Grain Union lobby group for non-state farmers, expects Russia’s grain exports to reach 47 million tonnes this season.
“But we can do 50 (million tonnes) if market conditions allow,” he said, adding that further increases beyond that point will be limited by bottlenecks in transportation infrastructure.
Russia exported 29.8 million tonnes of grain between July 1 and Jan. 24, up 35 percent on the same period in the previous season, data from the agriculture ministry show.
