WASHINGTON, D.C. – The United States, like Canada, is trumpeting its growing success at exporting food to the world. But this year it expects its wheat exports to tumble by 39 percent.
Unlike Canada, the U.S. export industry is not recording a new record every year.
Last week, agriculture secretary Dan Glickman predicted 1997 exports from the U.S. will be worth $56.5 billion (U.S.), or close to $70 billion Canadian. That is down more than $3 billion from last year’s record.
He set a goal of $80 billion in exports early in the next century.
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Glickman said lower wheat and feed grain prices and volumes will be the main problem for 1997. Wheat exports are projected to fall from 33.7 million tonnes to 20.5 million tonnes this year.
By contrast, Canadian agricultural exports this year are projected to rise to a record $20 billion, heading perhaps as high as $23 billion by the end of the decade.
Glickman saw the improving American numbers as a direct reflection on the policies and promotions of his government.
“These continued strong export numbers reflect the administration’s commitment to fighting for open markets and aggressively promoting U.S. agricultural goods in world markets,” Glickman told the annual USDA agricultural outlook conference.
He projected record sales of livestock, dairy and poultry products worth $12.2 billion.
Glickman also threatened to use export subsidies to maintain America’s fair share of markets if competitors are using subsidies.
Amidst the predictions of growth, there were some weak spots in U.S. export predictions, however.
Washington’s economists are predicting the recent annual increase in U.S. beef sales to Japan will be reversed because of a Japanese consumer resistance to meat imports, fearing unsafe product.
And abundant grain harvests last year have dampened U.S. expectations about its share of world markets.
Large harvests elsewhere
The USDA forecast is that wheat exports will fall to 20.5 million tonnes this year from last year’s 33.7 million, with a lower value of $3.6 billion. As a reason, the department cites large harvests around the world, including Australia, Argentina and Canada where farmers reacted to high prices by planting more.
Coarse grain exports now are projected to fall 3.6 million tonnes from last year, to 55 million tonnes.
Overall, the volume of U.S. exports is projected to fall eight percent this year to 145.4 tonnes.
If accurate, that will be down more than 14 percent from 1995 records.
One area of strong export growth is expected to be oilseeds, with U.S. projections that sales will grow almost three million tonnes this year, mainly to Europe and China.
