TransPacific Partnership talks | Supply management will come under fire
TORONTO — Former federal agriculture trade negotiator Mike Gifford says pressure on Canadian supply management in upcoming Asian trade liberalization talks depends on how much the United States is willing to compromise.
As a big player on the trade scene, American protection of its dairy and sugar sectors will be under the spotlight in trade talks, said Gifford.
Pressure on Canada’s dairy and poultry protections will increase if the U.S. agrees to some compromise.
He also predicts that some watering down in supply management protections will be needed if there is to be a successful conclusion to Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks that Canada is joining.
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“The likely best case scenario is eventual duty-free trade for most agricultural products but sensitive products remain protected with reduced tariffs and expanded tariff (minimum access) quotas,” Gifford said Sept. 29 during a meeting of trade-related agricultural researchers.
The extent of American willingness to compromise on its protection of dairy and sugar sectors in Asian trade talks will determine how much Canada has to bend on supply management, he added.
It was a starkly different message from that of supply management critics who insist that free traders such as the United States, Australia and New Zealand will demand compromises in supply management tariffs and import restrictions as the price for entering the TPP talks.
Gifford, who locked horns with the Americans in both Canada-U.S. free trade talks and at the World Trade Organization, said the U.S. has been fiercely protective of its dairy and sugar industries and it will set the TPP tone for how much liberalization is possible.
Gifford told a Toronto meeting of the Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Re-search Network that he is doubtful of major American concessions.
“Given the history of the U.S. and the influence of dairy and sugar, the Americans will not go for free trade,” he said.
Still, Canada’s dairy and poultry industries should be preparing strategies for reduced protection, he added.
“At a minimum, you will have increased product coming in at a low or zero (tariff) rate,” he said.
Agriculture minister Gerry Ritz has insisted Canada will defend supply management in trade talks, including with the European Union and Asian countries.
Gifford’s view was that Canada will have to move at least on increased tariff rate quota access if the Americans agree to some compromise on protectionism.
He has argued in the past that there will have to be some changes to supply management rules that set high tariffs above a fixed guaranteed access limit, but he also said defence of supply management at trade negotiations has not hurt gains for export sectors, despite the arguments of critics.
“I think from now on, that will be tested,” he told the meeting.
