An early federal government analysis of the stakes in the next world trade negotiation round, beginning next year, is that a number of key Canadian farm policies will be at risk and Canadians can expect opposition from some powerful countries.
The role of the Canadian Wheat Board and the Canadian Dairy Commission as state trading enterprises will be under attack from the United States and Argentina, says a discussion paper circulated by Agriculture Canada.
While Canada will be pushing for an elimination of export subsidies, other countries will be trying to catch the CWB in a broadened definition of what can be considered unfair export policy.
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And while Canada will argue for continued trade liberalization, it will once again have to fight to keep tariffs that protect sensitive supply-managed commodities as high as possible.
“Canada, like a number of countries, will face a difficult task in developing a negotiating position on market access,” says the discussion paper, issued under the signature of Mike Gifford, director general of Agriculture Canada’s market and industry services branch. “On the one hand, Canada has major agricultural export interests for which it will want to seek maximum liberalization. On the other hand, Canada also has sensitivities on the import side.”
Gifford, who led Canada’s agriculture negotiations in the last round of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade negotiations 1986-93, is warning that the same, sometimes contradictory goals still exist which at times undermined the credibility of Canadian negotiators last time, unless Canadian farm groups can reconcile them in a common position.
The papers warn there will be a strong push by some major countries to cut tariffs that countries like Canada use to protect dairy, poultry and egg sectors, as well as a push to put tighter controls on how countries can support their farmers.
U.S. leads the charge
Behind most of these assaults on Canadian positions will be the Americans.
“With respect to tariff cuts, a number of countries which have no significant border protection will be approaching the preparatory phase with an established negotiating position aiming for maximum liberalization,” says the discussion paper. “The U.S. is also expected to take an ambitious approach to tariff cuts.”
And on the wheat board: “The United States, supported by Argentina, is the key proponent of increased disciplines on state trading entities.”
By releasing a discussion paper now on expected issues, Agriculture Canada is urging Canadian farm sectors to prepare positions and negotiate among themselves. Gifford says farm organizations should consider the implications of these issues to allow “a well-informed discussion of Canada’s agri-food trade interests in the next round of World Trade Organization negotiations.”
A national conference on an opening round position is expected early next year. WTO negotiations begin late in the year.
On one score, Canadian negotiators will be able to go to the next bargaining table with evidence that the country took to heart the subsidy cuts ordered in the 1993 deal.
The discussion paper notes that while many other countries met trade-distorting subsidy cut requirements by converting the spending to other, more acceptable forms, Canada slashed.
“In Canada, budget cuts have reduced the (aggregate measure of support) to a level less than $2 billion in the 1995-96 AMS year while our commitment level is to reduce the AMS from $5.2 billion in 1995 to $4.3 billion in 2000,” noted the paper.
Some farm leaders have criticized Canadian governments for using the GATT agreement to slash support spending far faster in Canada than elsewhere, putting farmers at a disadvantage.
