Glacier FarmMedia – As the old proverb says, “March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb.”
It is commonly tied to the idea that the month often starts with the last hurrah of winter before giving way to spring as the calendar turns to April.
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From an agricultural futures perspective, you could say March 2025 came in like the Looney Tunes Tasmanian Devil as the general chaos brought on by U.S.trade policies roiled markets. The actual tariff situation is likely to shift several times between the writing of this column and its publication, but it’s safe to say that politics will be the driving factor of grain and oilseeds markets for the foreseeable future.
U.S. president Donald Trump went ahead and imposed broad 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican imports on March 4, triggering a sharp sell off in the North American equity and agricultural futures markets. Canada responded in kind with its own tariffs on many U.S. goods.
In subsequent days, prominent U.S. officials implied a reprieve to the tariffs may be coming, which was enough to spark a correction higher in the futures.
Two days after the trade war started, Trump signed an amendment delaying U.S. tariffs on some Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2. Whether or not any deals are struck over the next month remains to be seen, with more brinkmanship and “diplomacy” via social media the more likely outcomes.
From a chart standpoint, there’s an argument to be made that canola is stuck in a sideways trading pattern — even despite the uncertain political forces at play. Support in the May contract comes in at around $600 per tonne, with resistance at $680.
Speculators were holding a record large net long position in canola futures ahead of the March 4 tariffs, which does leave the market open to a long-liquidation correction if they decide to sell. However, aside from the immediate kneejerk reaction, values have held relatively firm, with the need to ration demand over the next few months also still supportive.
Soybean, corn and wheat futures in the U.S. were also reacting to the shifting tariff talk during the week. Mexico is a big buyer of U.S. corn, while China is a large customer for corn and soybeans. South American harvest pressure and positioning ahead of spring seeding in North American may also move markets if the tariff uncertainty subsides.
Statistics Canada will release its first official acreage estimates of the year on March 12, while U.S. data will be out later in the month.
