A climate change impact study prepared for the federal government says people living on the Prairies should expect more water shortages and more frequent droughts.
As well, warmer winters will mean more pests and plant diseases will survive to wreak havoc on crops.
“One of the most important climate change impacts relates to changes in the availability of water for agriculture,” said the report From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. “All types of agriculture depend upon a suitable amount, quality and timing of water. Agriculture is Canada’s largest net consumer of water.”
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While water sources shrink, the need will grow.
“The demand for water for irrigation and livestock is expected to rise with increasing temperatures and expansion in these sectors,” said the analysis.
The report’s authors say there also will be benefits for prairie farmers and it is too soon to say what the balance between harm and help will be.
“Opportunities for agriculture may result from continued expansion of the growing season, increased heat units and milder, shorter winters,” the report concluded. “Negative impacts of climate change include increased frequency and intensity of extremes such as drought and intense storms and rapid rates of change that may exceed certain thresholds.”
It will increase the prominence that crop insurance plays in future farm support programs.
However, the report also notes that predictions about the actual long-term impact on agriculture often are contradictory.
Some studies have suggested that Manitoba will benefit from growth of higher value crops in warmer temperatures while southern Saskatchewan and Alberta suffer most from the water shortage.
But a 2003 study of potential impacts on prairie land values estimated that land prices could increase up to $628 per acre “because of the increase in the length of the growing season and production of more valuable crops.”
While the actual impacts of climate change are difficult to predict, the academics who wrote the report on implications for Canada said there is no longer any doubt that climate change is happening. It will affect all regions and most parts of the Canadian economy and society.
“The impacts of climate change are already evident in Canada and globally,” they wrote. “Climate change will continue for many decades and even centuries regardless of the success of global initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
