Wheat acreage might be up next year or it might be down.
The area seeded to canola might stay about the same or it might take a big jump.
At this time of year, it depends on who you ask.
Farmers and grain market watchers last week were presented with a couple of different early scenarios for 1998 seeding intentions.
Private analyst Growers Marketing Service, a division of United Grain Growers Ltd., is projecting a slight increase in wheat acreage and a slight decline in the area seeded to canola.
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But Agriculture Canada’s grain analysts in Winnipeg had a different view in their pre-Christmas forecast, suggesting spring wheat will be down and canola acreage will be up significantly, perhaps by as much as 10 percent.
The main reason for those differing outlooks is different assumptions about moisture.
GMS looks around the prairies and sees bare brown fields, and says that’s already affecting farmers’ thoughts about next year.
“Right now we have fairly dry conditions, and being that most guys are making their early seeding guesses at this time of year, it may be influencing their decisions,” said Dave Reimann of Growers Marketing Service.
GMS is not predicting there will be a dry spring, he added. It’s just saying that based on current conditions, farmers are probably thinking in those terms.
“But that could change at any time and that’s why these numbers are definitely not carved in stone by any means.”
GMS says the dry conditions are probably leading farmers to think about switching from canola to wheat or summerfallow, especially in the southern prairies.
But Glenn Lennox, wheat market analyst with Agriculture Canada, said his department doesn’t want to make any guesses about moisture conditions three or four months down the road.
“At this point we are not making any assumptions about how much moisture there will be this spring because all it will take is one good rain in April and they’ll be seeding as much canola as they ever did,” he said.
Ag Canada’s forecast is based on expected prices at the time farmers are making their final seeding decisions.
The department expects canola acreage to be up at the expense of wheat because it will be providing higher returns per acre. Another factor driving canola acreage is that it has been four years since the record acreage, so some rotations will be open to canola for the first time in a while.
For wheat in Western Canada, Ag Canada projects a 10 percent increase in durum and a six percent decline in spring wheat, with farmers shifting from wheat to canola or summerfallow in southern Saskatchewan.
GMS sees total western wheat up two percent, with increases in Saskatchewan and Alberta and a decline in Manitoba. Durum acreage will be up sharply in Saskatchewan due to premium prices this year.
One thing both forecasters agree on is that there will be more flax around next year.
GMS is projecting a 16 percent increase in flax acreage, prompted by prices in the $8 a bushel range, comparatively low input costs versus canola, and an expectation that Manitoba farmers will switch wheat acres to flax for rotational reasons.
For feed grains, lower acreage is projected for both barley and oats. Peas, lentils and other alternative crops are expected to be down due to generally low 1997-98 prices.
