Ask New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton about the party’s shutout in Saskatchewan and poor showing in agricultural seats in the October election and he’ll enthuse about how the party strengthened its rural voice.
The NDP picked up a handful of rural northern Ontario seats and a few rural British Columbia seats on the way to 37 seats and its second best federal result ever.
But it failed to win a seat in key agricultural regions of the Maritimes, Quebec, Ontario and the Prairies and for the first time in NDP history, failed for the third consecutive election to win a seat in Saskatchewan.
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At an Oct. 29 news conference, Layton preferred to stress the positive.
“When it comes to rural Canada, we have extremely strong representation in many rural ridings,” he said.
As well, the party made a breakthrough in electing a Quebec MP, a Newfoundland MP and an Alberta MP, he said. All were from urban ridings.
“I am of course disappointed we did not secure a seat in Saskatchewan,” Layton added. “We came very close. We had a very competitive campaign there but unfortunately disappointment.”
He was alluding to the 200-vote loss by former National Farmers Union president Nettie Wiebe in Saskatoon
“We’re going to have to analyze why some of those races were close but not successful,” he said. “We need to work with our team in Saskatchewan to build.”
At the University of Saskatchewan, political scientist David McGrane said a major part of the Saskatchewan problem for the NDP is the nature of the province’s seats.
City seats where NDP support is concentrated also have rural voters who are strongly Conservative.
“If there were some strictly urban seats, I think the NDP could pick up three or four,” he said Oct. 30. “The NDP picked up 25 percent of the vote but didn’t win a seat. In Saskatoon, Nettie Wiebe came within 200 votes and she won the city part of her riding.”
Another factor is that Layton as a leader with his regular attacks on banks and oil companies does not seem to sell well in the province where oil is a growing part of the booming economy, McGrane said.
And while the federal NDP once had solid support in rural areas and among farmers, that has changed, he said.
The death of the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool’s extension and education system and a decline in the political role credit unions play mean many farmers are less likely to embrace the co-operative model championed by the NDP.
“I think there has been a change in the way farmers see themselves,” he said. “They see themselves as business people rather than co-operators. All the polls indicate rural areas are solidly Conservative.”
However, McGrane said there is no reason to assume that the farm and rural vote could not change away from the Conservatives if rural problems do not get resolved.
In 1993, a Progressive Conservative government that had solid support in most rural areas across the country (Saskatchewan with 10 New Democrats was an exception) lost every rural seat in an election debacle that saw the party reduced to two seats nationally.
“The rural vote certainly can change,” he said. “It cannot be taken for granted.”
