SWIFT CURRENT, Sask. – The Farmer’s Almanac may be a bit vague and international specialists still reluctant to proclaim global warming a fact, but here in the heart of southern Saskatchewan’s dryland, Herb Cutforth has little doubt.
“When you look at the data, clearly something is happening,” he said. “They talk about global warming and I think we can see it here.”
Cutforth, an agricultural meteorologist at Swift Current’s semiarid prairie agricultural research centre, has been comparing climate data recorded over the past 40 years.
The evidence pointing to a steady warming in southern Saskatchewan temperatures is at times startling. The facts reflect a discernible trend and not simply results of one rogue year.
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Average winter maximum temperatures in 1997 were five degrees higher than in 1950. Average maximum spring temperatures are six degrees higher.
Field runoff in 1997 reached 75 percent completion 17 days earlier than in 1962.
Runoff into Swift Current Creek now averages 23 days earlier than in 1963.
Average soil temperatures show a marked increase in the past four decades.
“There is just no doubt that spring comes a lot earlier now than it used to,” Cutforth said in an interview at the Agriculture Canada Research Centre where he works. “Farmers can get onto their land weeks earlier on average. Of course, that doesn’t always mean they get to plant earlier. Other factors, like moisture, determine that.”
To a scientist more accustomed to nuanced signs of change, the extent of the evidence was surprising.
Cutforth said he started to investigate data collected by Environment Canada, Agriculture Canada and the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration after reading an article written by two scientists in Hawaii.
They study carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere around the world and noted that over North America, the usual winter buildup of CO2 begins to decline in spring much earlier now than in the past.
“They postulated that crops are growing earlier, since crop growth takes CO2 from the air,” said the scientist.
His investigations of local information confirmed the point, at least in his area of southern Saskatchewan.
Now, Cutforth hopes to have his findings published in a scientific journal.
