The sell off of thousands of cattle in drought-damaged areas of
Saskatchewan shouldn’t set back plans to expand the province’s cattle
industry, say two industry experts.
Red Williams, an agricultural economist at the University of
Saskatchewan, and Bert Lardner of Saskatchewan Agriculture’s livestock
development division, said in separate interviews last week that most
good quality breeding cattle are simply being moved to new homes, not
going to slaughter.
And while it’s too early to know for sure, they suspect the bulk of
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them are staying in Saskatchewan.
“I would guess most of them would be moving from one area of the
province to the next,” said Lardner. “The majority of good commercial
cows will be moved to expand producers’ herds in areas where there
isn’t a drought effect.”
Both emphasized they didn’t want to minimize the disastrous impact of
the drought on those producers forced to sell off or scale back their
herds.
But at the same time, they don’t think the crisis will necessarily
undermine plans to expand cattle production in the province.
Williams is also president of Saskatchewan Agrivision Corp., a
coalition of farm and business leaders working to promote the
development of the province’s agricultural industries.
Agrivision has forecast an increase in the provincial beef cattle herd
to 3.3 million head by 2010 from current levels of a little more than
two million head.
Williams said he doesn’t think the drought means Agrivision will have
to review those projections.
“I think they’re still on line. You’d be surprised how quickly you can
recover from something like this.”
He said the movement of cattle prompted by the drought may actually
help build the herd in certain key regions.
Much of the forecast growth in the cattle herd has been projected to
take place in eastern and northeastern Saskatchewan, areas relatively
unaffected by the drought.
“So that expansion won’t be affected,” said Williams.
“In fact, it gives them an opportunity to buy in cattle that they might
not otherwise have had access to.”
Lardner said that while all the talk has been about cattle being sold,
for every seller there is a buyer.
“I know producers who are taking advantage the drought cattle right now
and they’re doubling or tripling their herd size.”
He said many of the cattle being shipped out of the drought areas
aren’t being sold outright, but housed temporarily under some other
arrangement, such as a fee-for-service or a deal where the host keeps
the first calf crop and returns the cows. That will make it easier to
rebuild the herd in those areas.
Williams acknowledged it’s difficult to talk about the fact that the
drought may actually benefit some producers or some areas.
“For the guy that’s getting hammered, it doesn’t make him any happier
to say that there are some positive aspects, but nevertheless there
are.”
Lardner said a year like this is obviously discouraging, but the
potential to expand the province’s cattle industry is still there,
based on a plentiful supply of cheap land.
“Producers are a tough bunch and they’ll bounce back,” he said.
