MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) — Russia expects to have a modest grain exportable surplus for the second year in a row because of low market stocks and state plans to replenish strategic reserves.
The country, which is traditionally the world’s No. 3 wheat exporter, was hit by drought last year, cutting its grain harvest by 25 percent to 71 million tonnes.
The government targets a crop of 95 million tonnes this year, but its forecast is seen as unlikely to be met.
“It is clear that Russia’s 2013 grain production will not rebound to 95 million tonnes, the target of the agriculture ministry, if weather conditions are close to the average of the (past) several years,” SovEcon recently said.
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The agricultural analysis agency sees Russia’s 2013-14 grain exportable surplus at 16 million tonnes, up from last year’s 15.1 million tonnes and down from 28 million tonnes in 2011-12.
“Exportable surplus looks noticeably lower than in 2011-12 due to a sharp stocks decline, mainly in southern regions,” SovEcon said.
The forecast for the 2013 grain crop stands at 83 to 89 million tonnes but may be slashed to 80 to 84 million tonnes in the event of bad spring weather, the think-tank added. It expects grain yields to rise to .8 tonnes per acre this year from .73 tonnes in 2012.
The grain crop in southern regions, which is the main source for Russia’s exports, is expected to be 28 to 30 million tonnes, up from 24.1 million tonnes in 2012, the consultancy added.
The Russian government is selling grain from its stocks, which are expected to decline to 300,000 tonnes by July from 4.8 million tonnes a year ago, according to an official forecast.
The country’s carryover stocks are expected to decline to 8.7 million tonnes by July 1, including .5 million tonnes of state stocks and 8.2 million tonnes of market stocks, according to SovEcon’s estimate.
The agriculture ministry intends to buy three to five million tonnes of grain, mainly wheat and corn, on the domestic market between July and October to replenish its stocks.
