WINNIPEG – Farmers will grow more wheat and malting barley in the next 10 years and get better prices than they have in the last decade, according to a new 10-year forecast from the Canadian Wheat Board.
The director of the board’s market analysis department said the forecast to 2004-2005 is great news for producers.
Prices won’t likely be higher than this year’s records, which Brian White called an anomaly. But compared to the last 10 years, price trends are good.
“We do believe the demand is out there … and we believe the supply side is going to be pushed,” White said. “And as a result, prices are generally going to be trending higher.”
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The report explained during the past decade, farmers around the world have planted less grain. High world grain stocks that caused price gluts in the mid-1980s have declined by 35 percent.
Yields have increased but have not made up for smaller acreage, meaning stocks are at minimum levels. There is strong demand for grain, but to get acres up prices will need to increase, the report said.
White estimated Canada will increase its share of the world wheat market to 21 percent by 2005 from the five-year average of 19 percent. He predicted Canada will grow between 35 and 36 million acres of wheat and export almost 80 percent of it.
Canadian farmers will export 3.4 million tonnes of durum in 2005, compared to the average of 2.8 million tonnes during the last five years, according to the report.
Oilseed acreage may drop
White said if wheat acreage rises to levels last seen in the early 1990s, there will be less area available for oilseeds and special crops. The CWB sees these crops taking up between 15 to 17 million acres on the Prairies in 2005.
But a year ago, White said some in the trade predicted canola could reach the 20 million-acre mark. He added it’s clear that this year, canola acreage will drop below 13 million because of higher prices and lower costs of production for wheat, as well as rotation needs and disease problems for canola.
The CWB also predicts more acres of barley on the Prairies, up to a maximum of 10 million. By 2005, Canada will export 1.4 million tonnes of malting barley, compared to the average of 500,000 tonnes in the last five years.
White said farmers in the western prairies will find it profitable to grow feed barley for export to markets like Japan, the United States, Taiwan and South Korea. The CWB sees 1.6 million tonnes of feed barley exported in 2005.
