Alberta producers estimate there will be at least 15 percent fewer sows on Alberta farms next year, according to a survey of producers.
Preliminary results of the survey estimate there will be almost 14,000 fewer sows in Alberta barns by July, said Murray Roeske, field services specialist with Alberta Pork.
The real picture could be bleaker because only the “optimistic” producers who plan to stay in the business answered the survey, he said.
“It could be dramatically higher,” said Roeske, who phoned many of the producers who were getting out of the business and didn’t fill in the questionnaire.
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“It’s possible it could be 20 percent or greater.”
Alberta Pork initiated the survey. It is not statistically based but will help Alberta Pork gauge the direction of the industry.
“We as an industry were under the opinion we were dramatically downturning. As a representative of the industry, it behooves us to understand how bad this downturn is,” said Roeske.
“We’re a little concerned with critical mass. We don’t want the industry spiraling down to where feed company and transportation companies and packing companies say ‘there’s no industry here any more, we might as well go home.’ “
Producers who cumulatively own about half the province’s 200,000 sows answered the survey. They said they plan to reduce sow numbers by about 15 percent.
Those 14,000 fewer sows translate to 500,000 to 600,000 fewer market hogs. Alberta finishes about 3.2 million hogs a year.
“It’s significant. You’ve taken a fair chunk of those pigs away.”
Also lost will be 47,240 spaces that are used to finish pigs. Pig barns turn over a population two to three times a year, which means there will be 141,720 fewer finished pigs. The weaner pigs that normally filled these spaces are likely going to the United States.
Roeske said a dramatic reduction in sow numbers would have a ripple effect across all of agriculture.
Fewer pigs mean less feed bought at feed mills, fewer trucks hauling hogs and fewer people working in processing plants.
It’s all part of a continuing trend of producers leaving the hog industry.
In July 2007, the province had 96,000 sows.
By November 2007, there were 87,000 sows and by July 2008 it’s expected there will be 82,000 sows.
Not only do reduced hog numbers affect other agriculture sectors, it will also affect Alberta Pork’s budget. Producers pay a fee of about $1 per finished pig to run the organization and about 25 cents for each weaner pig.
Roeske said the pork industry runs on confidence. People will stay in the business if they can raise pigs and earn enough money to pay their bills and have some profit.
“Unfortunately, confidence is a little bit lagging here.”
Neil Ketilson, general manager of the Saskatchewan Pork Development Board, said his group hasn’t taken a formal survey, although comments he has heard suggest a seven to eight percent drop in sow numbers this year.
That translates to about 10,000 fewer hogs in Saskatchewan’s 122,000 sow herd and about 200,000 fewer market hogs.
“The Canadian hog industry in general is going through a major downsizing,” said Ketilson.
Andrew Dickson, general manager of Manitoba Pork, said he is awaiting Statistics Canada’s report on the hog industry, expected by the end of January.
He estimates sow numbers in his province will be down 20,000 to 30,000 sows this year, from the existing 360,000 sows.
Lower sow numbers will likely translate to about 800,000 to one million fewer finished hogs and 200,000 fewer weanlings in Manitoba.
Dickson said the real uncertainty for Manitoba hog producers is the American country of origin labelling regulations that come into effect this fall.
Manitoba producers export about four million weanlings and 1.3 million finished animals for slaughter to the United States.
Some American packers have told Manitoba producers they will not accept any Canadian weanlings or slaughter animals.
Other packers have said they may dedicate entire plants to Canadian animals.
“We know every story we’ve heard, everyone is getting rid of sows. The next three months will be critical. If you can’t sell your weanlings, you’re going to clean your barn out.”
