WINNIPEG – No matter how hard the numbers get crunched, they don’t add up to a doubling of Canada’s grain industry output by 2005.
Here’s what Agriculture Canada analyst Robert McGregor told grain industry officials attending last week’s meeting of the Canada Grains Council:
- The total value of the industry includes the value of bulk grain exports, western feed grain use, the value of grain processing on the Prairies and the value of the red meat industry. It did not include supply-managed commodities or horticultural crops.
- In 1994, the value was calculated to be $12 billion.
- If the industry did nothing different, the value of the industry would increase to $16.4 billion by 2005, based on existing trends in crop production, world prices, livestock cycles and planned processing capacity.
- If the hog industry doubles in size and the beef herd increases by 50 percent, that boosts the number to $17.1 billion. One result of increasing livestock was a reduction in bulk grain exports, especially feed barley. It also created a problem of competition for land between export grains and forages for livestock.
- If crop yields increase sharply (to 45 bushels per acre for wheat and 80 bushels for barley) that edges the number up to $17.3 billion. If prices for cereal grains increase by 25 to 30 percent (a prospect McGregor described as unrealistic), that gets it up to $18.5 billion.
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