Peas continue to work their way into planting rotations and livestock feed rations.
And farmers continue to break records by producing greater amounts of the green and yellow pulses.
This spring, they will plant more than twice as many acres to peas than to flax, according to Statistics Canada.
That’s 500,000 more acres than the trade was expecting, noted analyst Brian Clancey of Stat Publishing.
“On the face of it, you’d say that’s kind of a bearish number,” said Clancey.
But it’s too soon to predict what this market can accomplish, he said.
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“In the end, peas cannot go much below where they are.”
New crop bids have been in the range of $3.75 to $4 per bushel for green peas and $3.85 per bu. for yellows, delivered to western Canadian processors.
Over the past dozen years, green peas have scraped as low as $3.32 per bu., yellows have traded in the $3.45 to $3.75 per bu. range, and feed peas have gone as low as $3 per bu.
“There’s still some downside there,” said Clancey.
Using domestic feed and export projections, there’s a potential for pea ending stocks to rise as high as 900,000 tonnes, said Clancey.
But he wouldn’t count on that happening.
Lower prices will spur new demand. And, depending on relationships to soybean meal prices, the growing domestic feed market could gulp up a lot of the stocks.
“It’s a worm that can turn real fast,” he said.
Based on comparisons of previous Statistics Canada reports, there could be a 10 percent difference between farmers’ intentions and actual plantings, said Clancey.
He said some pea area could swing into wheat if farmers become more concerned about moisture, or find the Canadian Wheat Board’s new pricing options, due out April 27, particularly attractive.
But farmers have set out irrevocably on a trend to growing more peas and special crops, he said.
“I don’t think we’re done finding out how low wheat can get in this country,” said Clancey.
