The World Trade Organization is warning that war, international tensions and some shaky world economies point to little growth in trade volumes this year.
The Geneva-based organization said trade is expected to grow by less than three percent this year, well below typical 1990s growth rates.
“These trade figures reflect the growing economic and political uncertainty in the world today,” WTO director general Supachai Panitchpakdi said in a statement published April 22. “This uncertainty is detrimental to economic growth and development and can give rise to greater instability across the globe.”
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It proposed a counter-tactic – WTO members should inject confidence into world trade by quickly breathing life into stalled trade talks.
“Governments must send a signal that they are prepared to address this problem,” said the director general. “One very important contribution to this effort would be to accelerate work on the negotiations in the Doha development agenda.”
The organization said that last year, merchandise trade increased 2.5 percent after a decline in 2001. Part of the reason for the increase in the value of agricultural trade was an increase in cereal prices.
“The recovery in food prices was the net outcome of higher prices for all types of cereals, soybeans and vegetable oils, which outweighed the price reductions in meat, seafood, sugar and tropical fruits,” said the WTO analysis.
“Prices for cereals, in particular wheat, rose as drought in four of the five traditional exporting regions caused a decline in production for the second year in a row.”
Another trend noted in 2002 was that China’s entry into the WTO had an early impact. The value of agricultural imports into China increased by 8.5 percent while the value of Chinese food exports increased 13 percent.
The value of Canada’s merchandise exports fell 3.7 percent to $252.5 billion (US) but the country retained its position as the world’s seventh largest exporter.
