OTTAWA – If the federal government asks a tough “black and white question” in the barley plebiscite next winter, more farmers will vote to retain the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly on malt and export feed sales, predicts a pollster.
“My feeling is that when they put a question that is black and white, either you want it under the board or on the open market, no in-between, the so-called silent majority that support the board will end up saying they want to stay with the board,” Gary Benneweis, executive vice-president of the Winnipeg-based Angus Reid Group, said Nov. 4.
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In August, he directed a poll of prairie farmers for Agriculture Canada.
The full poll results released last week showed that a majority of farmers were interested in a “middle ground” in which they had a choice of marketing privately or through the Canadian Wheat Board.
Tougher questions
However, as the questions got tougher and the options diminished, support for the board grew.
When a question was asked that is very similar to what the government is expected to ask – should the board lose control of existing barley marketing jurisdiction – just 30 percent supported the option.
Liberal sources say the Angus Reid poll influenced agriculture minister Ralph Goodale to decide that he could win a vote for the wheat board if he asked an either/or question.
Despite complaints from the Reform party and open market advocates, Goodale has rejected a third, middle option of a “dual market” for barley marketing
It will not be an option on the ballot and farmers will be forced to choose between a board monopoly or no board at all for barley.
Benneweis said that could be part of a winning strategy.
He said pro-board advocates would be wise during the campaign to try to demonstrate that the board brings value to farmers.
“The other thing that will enter in is that farmers already do have a certain amount of freedom in marketing barley because they can market feed barley themselves,” said the pollster.
He also suggested it would be an effective tactic if Goodale carries out his stated intention to warn that once lost, the wheat board monopoly cannot be regained under the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
