Gary Doer’s replacement needs to know that most Manitoba voters are moderates, says Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University.
On Oct. 17, Manitoba’s NDP will choose a new leader and premier of the province.
“Politics in Manitoba tends to be pretty middle of the road. We’re not Alberta and we’re not even Saskatchewan,” said Saunders, adding that Doer’s understanding of the average Manitoban kept him in power for 10 years.
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“He practised good, middle of the road, common sense politics, (so) he really didn’t alienate a lot of people,” said Saunders. “And he’s a personable guy … the kind of guy you would want to sit down and have a beer with.”
Manitoba politics was turned upside down in late August when Doer resigned to work as Canada’s ambassador in Washington, D.C.
Three of Doer’s ministers, Andrew Swan, Greg Selinger and Steve Ashton, are vying to become the next leader.
It’s unlikely the new NDP leader will make rural Manitoba and agriculture a priority because political power is centred in Winnipeg, said Jared Wesley, a University of Manitoba political science professor.
“Of the three prairie provinces, the farm vote in Manitoba isn’t as large of a part of the political equation as it is in the other two provinces,” said Wesley.
Consequently, looking at it from a crass political perspective, Wesley said the NDP could ignore rural issues and still win the legislature.
The home base of the three leadership candidates says a great deal about the NDP.
“We have a northern candidate in Steve Ashton (and two Winnipeg contenders), but we don’t have a rural candidate in this race.”
The reality of Winnipeg as the nexus of Manitoba politics explains why Doer and the NDP were able to introduce and pass Bill 17 last year. It called for a permanent moratorium on hog barns in eastern Manitoba and the Interlake and was controversial in rural areas.
But Doer always understood that the Winnipeg voter was more important than rural support, Wesley said.
“When we look back on Doer’s premiership, we’ll probably look at him as one of the greater strategists in Manitoba politics, in terms of crafting his message to the median voter … That type of message won him the seats he needed for his three majorities and those seats came in the city of Winnipeg.”
Wesley and Saunders said Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen has a chance to take advantage of Doer’s departure.
The provincial Election Act was altered last year and Manitoba now has fixed election dates. The next election is set for Oct. 4, 2011, but the act does allow a sitting government to call for a vote before that date.
If the Tories want to win that vote, it will require policies and positions that attract Winnipeg voters without alienating the base in rural areas, Saunders said.
Although the Tories will have to cater to Winnipeg in order to get power, Saunders said that doesn’t mean the party will abandon farmers.
“A lot of these guys (Tory MLAs) come from rural areas, they come from agricultural cultural backgrounds, that’s where a lot of their money and support comes from,” she said. “If you ask me who’s the friendlier party to the ag industry, there’s no question it’s going to remain the PC party.”
