PRINCE ALBERT, Sask. – Valerie Mushinski, a New Democratic Party candidate from Saskatchewan, has a theory about why the province of Tommy Douglas and the CCF has turned its back on the party.
“This province and this riding have a long tradition of CCF and NDP representatives that helped build the community,” she said. 
“But I think a lot of the generations that have come since take what was built for granted and don’t realize what has been built needs to be supported and nurtured. They don’t realize that once it is lost, it will be very difficult to get back.”
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Like NDP candidates in select ridings around the province, Mushinski thinks she can win against rookie Conservative candidate Randy Hoback. Incumbent Conservative Brian Fitzpatrick, who defeated her decisively in 2006, has retired.
“I think there has been a shift in the electorate in the last two years as they’ve seen the Conservatives in power,” she said after she took part in a march to promote non-violence in this northern working class city.
“I think our chances this time are very good.”
The Prince Albert riding, represented in the past by prime ministers William Lyon Mackenzie King and John Diefenbaker, was held by the NDP for 14 years after Diefenbaker died in 1979.
“I think we can win it back,” Mushinski said.
In the south-central riding of Regina-Qu’Appelle, NDP candidate Janice Bernier expected her attempt to regain a traditional NDP seat lost to Conservative Andrew Sheer in 2004 to be made easier by the election provincially of the conservative Saskatchewan Party, which is aligned with the federal Conservatives.
“My take is that voters will see the NDP this time as a way to establish checks and balances so the province doesn’t totally swing to the right,” she said.
University of Saskatchewan political scientist David McCrane said he doubts a major revival of NDP fortunes in the province is in the works.
“If the NDP was truthful, they would tell you they are focusing on two ridings – Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Palliser,” he said.
“Those are possible but far from certain. The rest, I don’t think, are in play.”
Both ridings McCrane mentioned have lost their Conservative incumbent and both have been NDP within the past decade. In the Saskatoon urban-rural riding, veteran campaigner and former National Farmers Union president Nettie Wiebe is the candidate.
McCrane said both federally and provincially, the NDP has lost its connection with rural Saskatchewan, and any victories Oct. 14 will be because the urban vote overwhelms the rural vote.
“I think most farmers have come to see themselves as small businessmen and not part of the co-operative spirit that was at the core of the CCF-NDP,” he said.
“They see (NDP leader) Jack Layton as a guy with an urban agenda and they have turned their back on the type of intervention policies he advocates.”
Layton also has led his party in opposing the Conservative government’s subsidies for biofuel development, which are popular in rural Saskatchewan.
Just two decades ago, the NDP was the dominant federal party in the province, winning 10 of 14 seats. It was the strongest showing since 1945 when the CCF won 18 of 21 seats.
In the past two elections, Layton led the party to the first consecutive shutouts since 1963 and 1965 when Diefenbaker’s Conservatives swept the province.
“I simply don’t see the makings of a significant revival,” said McCrane, whose 2007 PhD thesis examined the evolution of the NDP in Saskatchewan.
While visiting Saskatoon Sept. 23, prime minister Stephen Harper said voters in British Columbia and Saskatchewan who are considering the NDP as the alternative “should realize that a vote for the NDP will really be a vote for supporting the Liberal carbon tax.”
He was referring to talk of an opposition coalition to oppose the Conservatives.
And Saskatchewan Liberal candidate Rod Flaman said voters considering the NDP in his riding should realize the NDP cannot win government.
“They can vote to criticize the government or they can vote to replace it. Those are the choices.”
