REGINA – For Canada’s New Democratic Party, the prairie strategy is simply stated: target Saskatchewan seats that are deemed within reach and concentrate on re-establishing a beachhead in the province that gave birth to the party.
“There is no doubt the party wants to regain ground that was lost in Saskatchewan,” says veteran New Democrat MP Lorne Nystrom, one of the most prominent casualties in the near-sweep by the Conservatives in 2004. The 32-year House of Commons veteran lost Regina-Qu’Appelle riding by 900 votes to Conservative Andrew Scheer as the Liberal share of the vote rose sharply.
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“It happened because of vote splitting. That is the message we are promoting.”
In plain English, it is a plea to Liberal voters in winnable NDP seats to switch their votes to the NDP if they want to defeat the Conservatives.
Nystrom says it clearly in a message to voters distributed throughout the riding.
“Historically, this riding has voted NDP,” it says. “If you want to stop bad Conservative ideas, your best choice is to vote NDP again.”
Across the city in Palliser riding, where the NDP lost to Conservative Dave Batters by 124 votes out of more than 33,000 ballots cast, rookie candidate Jo Anne Dusel makes the same argument.
“In the last election, a lot of voters panicked and in the last days, switched from us to the Liberals to defeat the Conservatives,” she says. “It elected a Conservative. I believe people learned their lesson last time and will come home to us. At least, that’s what I’m hearing on the doorstep.”
The rookie Conservative MPs who benefited from the vote split, running this time with the benefit of incumbency, scoff at the NDP argument.
“To suggest that somehow last year was an aberration and that the NDP have a right to expect to win here is ridiculous,” said Batters, noting that parts of the riding created in 1996 from bits of four other ridings have long histories of Conservative representation. “The overwhelming issue on the doorstep is the desire for change and people here know that the way to get rid of the Liberals is not to vote NDP, the party that has propped the Liberals up for the past year.”
Campaign rhetoric and strategic voting advice aside, it is clear the NDP is putting emphasis on trying to win back a presence in what it considers the party’s historic heartland.
In an interview several months after the 2004 election, NDP rookie leader and Toronto MP Jack Layton mused apologetically about being the first NDP leader to be shut out of Saskatchewan.
In fact, the NDP was shut out of the province in its first three elections of 1962, 1963 and 1965 under the leadership of former Saskatchewan premier T.C. Douglas.
But there is no doubt that the political landscape in Saskatchewan has changed over the past decade.
As recently as 1988, the party claimed 10 of 14 seats to represent almost one-quarter of the caucus. Since then, the Conservatives and their Reform ancestors have claimed more and more of the political terrain until the NDP was shut out for the first time in four decades.
Since the 2004 vote, it has been clear that some Saskatchewan wins are both symbolically and practically important to the party.
This campaign, the NDP has targeted the ridings in British Columbia and Saskatchewan it believes can be reclaimed. Palliser and Regina-Qu’Appelle are among them
“I think the party is being smarter this time, more strategic in focusing on winnable seats rather than spreading resources around everywhere,” said Nystrom, a veteran of 11 previous campaigns.
“We clearly are getting more support from the federal party this time because they see this as a priority riding,” added campaign manager Rick Pollard.
Batters and Scheer insist that their personal records, public opposition to the Liberals and shifting political wins will keep their recently won seats in the Conservative column.
