SASKATOON – Prices have had the first say in the crops western Canadian farmers intend to seed this year, but weather may have the last.
Statistics Canada’s yearly planting intentions report released last week showed a dramatic increase in flax and pea acreage and only a modest decrease in 1994’s record canola acreage.
Barley is slated to increase from 1994, by nearly a million acres.
Farmers are also planning on increasing acreage of their staple crop, wheat, by a modest two percent after dropping by seven million acres from 1993 to 1994.
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Spring wheat and winter wheat acreage will jump, farmers told Statistics Canada, but durum acreage is forecast to decline by 500,000 acres.
Statistics Canada surveyed farmers about their intentions from March 27 to April 4.
Market analysts said the StatsCan report confirms western Canadian farmers are watching prices closely, trying to plant profitable crops.
“Farmers are staying away from wheat and getting heavy into flax,” said John Duvenaud of Wild Oats marketing newsletter based in Winnipeg. However, Duvenaud said he suspects actual flax acreage could drop.
Nearby flax futures prices have fallen by $30 a tonne in the month since the survey was done and a cool, late spring means a higher risk if the crop is seeded late.
“Everyone is watching the weather,” said United Grain Growers’ analyst Charlie Pearson in Winnipeg.”Lots of things can change.”
Pearson said if the spring continues to be wet and cool, more barley could go into the ground.
He said a switch may be more palatable given current prices for barley. Weather may also force a change to more oats.
Like flax, the bloom has also come off new-crop canola prices since StatsCan conducted its survey. Pearson thinks farmers will try to preserve as many canola acres as they can – including switching to Polish varieties if supplies are available.
Steve Scheutz, wheat analyst with the policy branch of Agriculture Canada in Winnipeg, said the Canadian Wheat Board should be able to get top prices for the 21 million acres of wheat farmers intend to plant.
While that’s at least seven million acres less than historic plantings, it is still enough wheat to sell to traditional high-value markets like Japan, the United States, Great Britain and Brazil.
“We will still have a presence in the export markets that are key to Canada,” he said.
Patty Rosher, board information officer, said the latest pool return outlook which forecasts better durum prices, may entice farmers to switch back to durum.
StatsCan will gather data on actual seeded acres late in the month, to be released in June’s field crop report.
