The wrong weather in the United States and Australia is doing the right thing for malting barley’s price outlook in Canada.
The Canadian Wheat Board’s last projections for the crop point to better price prospects for both six-row and two-row malting barley because of production problems in competing countries.
The United States is the main market for six-row varieties, and domestic production there has been plagued by fusarium for the fifth year in a row.
The disease, commonly called scab south of the border, can cause problems in bottled beer.
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July saw below average temperatures, August came in with near to slightly above average temperatures and September built on this warming trend with well above average temperatures for the month.
Too much rain
The technical director with the American Malting Barley Association blames weather conditions for the fusarium troubles.
“We’ve been getting the rain at the wrong time every year,” said Scott Heisel.
Most six-row barley is grown in Minnesota and the Dakotas. The association, which represents major U.S. maltsters, toured the area at the beginning of August.
“The general consensus of people on the tour is it’s probably like last year, or a little bit worse than last year,” Heisel said.
The association pays for much of the barley research being done in the United States, which has focused on finding fusarium tolerance, Heisel said. Until then, the industry will look west and north for barley supplies.
“What we’ve had to do in the past is source more barley out of the western U.S., which is a little more costly because of freight, and out of Canada somewhat,” said Heisel.
Most of Canada’s six-row malting barley comes from Manitoba, also hit by fusarium this year.
Bruce Burnett, an analyst with the Canadian Wheat Board, said the barley crop varies from region to region, but maltsters will likely have reasonable supplies for selection.
“Unfortunately, the hot, dry weather has given us probably a little bit more protein and lower test weights than one would like, especially for malting barley,” said Burnett.
“But counterbalancing that negative effect, we’ve had really good harvest weather for most of at least the first two-thirds of this harvest.”
While disease problems in the United States may boost prices for six-row varieties, the wheat board is watching weather down under to see how Australian barley pans out.
Australia is Canada’s biggest competitor in two-row malting barley markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where demand is growing.
Wait and see
It’s spring in Australia, and barley is just starting to head out. Farmers will start harvesting there in late October.
They’ve planted less barley this year and drought conditions may affect yield and quality, said Burnett.
In 1996, Canadian farmers grew 10.8 million tonnes of malting barley, and 60 percent of which was two-row.
Canada and Australia each have about 40 percent of world exports of malting barley. The European Union is the third largest exporter, while the United States is a smaller player.
Burnett said European production appears to be down, and some rain at harvest in some countries may have tightened supplies slightly.
