A larger than expected snow pack in North Dakota has increased the likelihood of a flood in Manitoba larger than the one in 2009.
The flood in the Red River Valley that year was the second biggest in the last 100 years.
Manitoba Water Stewardship issued an updated flood forecast Feb. 24 that said there is a good chance the Red River will peak 0.3 to 0.76 metres higher than 2009, assuming snowfall, rainfall and the rate of melt is typical.
As a result, thousands of acres of cropland in the Red River Valley would be covered in water and dozens of roads south of Winnipeg would become impassable.
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Several days of above zero weather in February reduced the height of the snow pack in Manitoba, but little of that water made it into rivers and streams, flood forecasters noted.
The spring runoff will likely be above average in many regions of southern Manitoba:
• along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border between Virden and Westray near The Pas;
• Killarney and Cypress River region;
• areas southwest of Lake Winnipeg, including Winnipeg.
The forecast said the provincial government is preparing for a spring flood by lowering water levels in the Shellmouth reservoir, near Russell, Man., buying two more sandbagging machines and cutting ice on the Red River north of Winnipeg to reduce the likelihood of ice jams.
Residents of Fargo, North Dakota, hope to fill three million sandbags before spring.
Red River flooding caused $100 million in damage in Fargo in 2009.
