The most recent version of El Nino has caused drought in Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and the southwestern U.S.
SAN DIEGO, Calif. — Hotter temperatures around the world are not the result of global warming. Instead, they have been caused by a powerful El Nino disrupting weather patterns.
“The El Nino event we have right now is no different than events in the 1880s, 1920s and 1930s,” said climatologist Art Douglas, professor emeritus at Creighton University in Nebraska.
The current warming trend is similar to the El Nino of 1939-41, when Pacific Ocean temperatures spiked, he said at the Cattlefax outlook session held during the Jan. 26-29 National Cattlemen’s Beef Association convention in San Diego.
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“Most of the warming in the world has occurred from Alaska to Chile. The rest of the world’s oceans haven’t changed very much,” he said.
Part of Douglas’s long-range forecasts rely on comparing current weather patterns to past climate events. Information such as sea surface temperatures, jet streams and other events are correlated.
Warming concentrated in the upper Pacific Ocean tells him the climate is cycling back to a regime similar to 1974-94.
Sea surface temperatures across the globe show El Nino is massive and has had a profound effect on weather everywhere.
“If we focus in the area off South America, we have water temperatures that are three Centigrade above normal,” he said.
“There is a tremendous amount of energy in the ocean. The hotter the ocean, the more moisture there is in the atmosphere, and that is what has been driving the weather for almost 14 months,” he said.
The warm water in the Pacific Ocean changes the direction of jet streams and may cause serious drought in some parts of the world and heavy rain elsewhere.
It has caused drought in Indonesia, northern Brazil, South Africa and the U.S. Southwest.
Because of El Nino, the cattle-rearing region of Queensland and Southeast Australia are in drought but the southwest part of the country is not. It has forced widespread livestock herd liquidation from which Australia may not recover for three to five years.
California and Wyoming have been extremely dry, although this is expected to improve in early spring. However, these regions need at least 150 millimetres of rain above normal to end the drought out and restore the region to a healthier state.
“Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to have that,” he said.
Most of the moisture has been concentrated in the central part of the country, so growing conditions throughout rest of the United States should be healthy.
However, he is expecting a cold, stormy March with lots of blizzards on the U.S. Plains.
El Nino is expected to moderate by fall. Sea surface temperatures could remain 1.3 C above normal, but conditions could quickly flip and a La Nina might appear.
barbara.duckworth@producer.com
