Before the next round of world trade talks even begins, one of the sticky issues to settle is the timetable.
Last week, Canada said it wants a fast negotiation and short implementation period.
“We favor a three-year negotiation,” said agriculture minister Lyle Vanclief. “We do not want to see this dragged out.”
The last time, negotiations were supposed to take four years and lasted a marathon seven years with a long phase-in.
Canadian officials say most World Trade Organization members also want the millennium round, which begins in late November, to be finished and implemented quickly.
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Some snags could develop to slow the process.
If negotiators add many sectors beyond agriculture, more countries will have a stake, tradeoffs will become more complex and the talks could drag.
The negotiating position of the Americans also will be crucial to the timing.
Limit to authority
Congress has not yet given the president “fast track” negotiating authority, which allows the administration to negotiate a deal and present a complete take-it-or-leave-it package to Congress. Without fast track, Congress would be able to pick and choose among the items and no comprehensive deal would be possible.
Fast track authority is not likely to be seriously debated in Washington until after the November 2000 election.
Canadian officials say that will make the timing tight but still possible for a 2002 conclusion to the talks.
According to senior Agriculture Canada trade official Mike Gifford, a three-year negotiation would follow a predictable schedule:
- Nov. 30 Ð Dec. 3 in Seattle, Wash., world leaders gather to formally launch the “millennium round.” They negotiate the outline of the talks, including topics to be covered and the deadline.
- Beginning in early 2000, preliminary negotiations begin in Geneva as WTO countries table their initial positions. Alliances in favor of various positions are formed.
- Through 2001, the chair of the talks analyzes the various positions, tries to find common threads and prepares a “chairman’s draft” of a proposed settlement. The member countries decide if the draft can be used as the basis for negotiation.
- Throughout 2002, the bargaining gets serious as countries exchange “offers.” Pressure for compromise and settlement intensify and a comprehensive deal is announced by the end of the year.
Key to the final push will be whether the United States and the European Union decide to make their own comprehensive deal, based on the chairman’s draft or some other framework. If the two trade superpowers come to an agreement, smaller countries will have to decide whether to sign on.
Gifford said the breakthrough in the talks almost certainly will come when the U.S. and EU start to deal. He said it is important that smaller countries like Canada make their impact early in the talks so positions become part of the background out of which a deal is forged.
