ROME, Italy (Reuter) – World cereal output must increase by at least four percent in 1996 to safeguard food security, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said.
“With 1995 crop estimates now much firmer, it is certain that cereal stocks will be drawn down sharply even to meet the reduced consumption requirements now expected,” the FAO said in its November-December food outlook.
“This will mean continuing high cereal import costs with possible serious implications for low-income, food-deficit countries,” it reported.
The FAO said the world needs a larger cereal output in 1996 to protect food security. “To meet only the currently expected below-trend utilization in 1996-97 and to prevent a further erosion of world cereal stocks, a minimum increase of four percent will be required.”
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FAO said its latest forecast for 1995 world cereal output was 1.883 billion tonnes, eight million tonnes less than the September forecast. Cereal stocks were expected to fall by 47 million tonnes to 226 million tonnes in 1996-97.
“At this level, the ratio of cereal stocks to trend utilization in 1996-97, at 14-15 percent, would be well below what the FAO secretariat considers the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security,” the outlook said.
Decline in feed use
FAO said the draw-down in stocks was expected despite an anticipated decrease in global cereal consumption by some two percent in 1995-96. It attributed the decrease to a sharp drop in feed use in developed countries because of high prices.
