BRANDON – Global warming is a complex, little understood phenomenon that will proceed whether humans cut their carbon dioxide production or not, says a professor of agrometeorology at the University of Manitoba.
But Paul Bullock told farmers at Manitoba Ag Daze in Brandon that he has nothing against Canada’s decision to implement the Kyoto Protocol and its commitment to cut greenhouse gas production.
He said the Kyoto Protocol could give the Earth’s population more time to learn how to adapt to the inevitable.
“I support the Kyoto Protocol and have no problem getting our energy use house in order. But I hate to tell you this. It is not going to prevent climate change,” said Bullock, formerly the head of weather analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board.
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Kyoto will only slow the rate of increase in human greenhouse gas production, he added.
“It could slow it down and buy us some time. That is important,” he said.
“The big question over the long term is how do we adapt to it?”
There is broad scientific consensus that increases of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are warming the planet, he said. But the heating is neither universal nor constant.
In the 20th century, global average temperatures rose quickly from 1910-45 and 1975-2000, but cooled in the 1950s and 1960s, he said.
The night average low temperature rose twice as fast as the daytime high. Temperatures warmed more in the winter than the summer.
And while some places warmed, other regions cooled.
Nor is it clear what all this means for crop and livestock production on the Canadian Prairies, he added.
Because plants “breathe” in carbon dioxide and exhale oxygen, a greater concentration of carbon dioxide should make them grow faster.
A warmer climate should allow agricultural production farther north and should result in longer frost-free seasons.
Overall, the Northern Hemisphere should get more rain, but some studies indicate that continental interiors, such as the Canadian Prairies, could suffer more frequent droughts.
The Canadian government is providing money to help agriculture with Kyoto greenhouse gas reduction targets and adaptation.
Kendal Heise of the Soil Conservation Council of Canada said Ottawa has provided $21 million to the agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation program over five years to come up with strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop carbon sinks.
Carbon sinks are ways to take carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in soil, forests and oceans.
For example, changing from conventional tillage to zero till builds carbon-based plant material in the soil.
Various committees and expert panels are working to develop management practices for reducing greenhouse gas in crop and livestock production.
“A good thing is that best management practices for greenhouse gas emission reduction are also the best management practices otherwise,” said Heise, who farms at Isabella, Man.
“We are not stepping to something that flies in the face of what we know are good practices.”
Farmers might have to spend money to implement these management practices, but should benefit from improved efficiency, he added.
Bullock said that because climate change is gradual and variable, it would be good for farmers to keep track of weather data on their farms.
“As far as adapting (to climate change), I don’t know what to say except to be cognizant of weather conditions, of how their weather conditions compare to how it is being forecast and to become an expert on what is happening in their own particular piece of the world.”
Human memory is selective, he said.
It is easy to remember only the extremes, such as storms, heat, cold and downpours, so it is best to keep a diary of weather reality.
