MONT TREMBLANT, Que. – Agriculture will be the growth industry of the 21st century, replacing oil and electronics, but food production will not be the core of the prosperity, says a leading American researcher on bio-fuels.
Bernard Tao, associate professor of agricultural and biological engineering at Purdue University, told an agricultural conference Dec. 1 that farm production will be the primary economic driver in the foreseeable future.
“Agriculture is tomorrow’s green gold,” he told delegates to a conference organized by the Canadian Farm Business Management Council.
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“Agriculture has a tremendous opportunity to redefine itself, not by giving up food production, but by expanding itself into industrial products.”
He said petroleum reserves are finite and as they become scarce, the price of fuel and petrochemical products will become less competitive.
Enter substitute products from renewable resources.
Use of cellulose-based products such as wood and grass will become the main source of fuel in the future, he said. Demand will be too great to base future bio-fuel on such starch products as corn and wheat.
Lipids, which are found in soy and canola oil, will be the base for such products as aviation fuel, ski wax, candles and a new generation of natural plastics.
“We have to wonder who will be the Microsoft in agriculture,” said Tao. “The opportunities are incredible, mainly in the industrial uses area. Profits are low but the potential volumes are staggering.”
Later, promoters of Canada’s ethanol industry told the conference that their expanding industry is a major and growing market for Canadian farmers.
The official federal government goal is to see one billion litres of ethanol produced by 2010.
It would be a quadrupling of current production.
“A billion litres in 2010 is the goal in Canada.I think we can do it by 2005 and shame on us if we can’t,” Bob Gallant of Commercial Alcohols Inc. told the conference.
Ethanol plants in Ontario and Saskatchewan are a market for more than 17 million bushels of corn and four million bushels of wheat. A new Quebec plant being built this year will take another 12 million bu. of corn.
Bliss Baker, president of the Canadian Renewable Fuel Association, said the industry is benefiting from low commodity prices but increased demand will raise commodity prices.
He said the renewable fuel sector also benefits from Canada’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“Our big driver has been the environment,” he said. “Canada’s commitment to the Kyoto protocol on greenhouse gases is key for us.”
He said the Ontario and Quebec markets have been the primary growth areas for ethanol so far, but an impending Saskatchewan “green print” strategy should open the door for prairie growth.
