Runoff is expected to be average or below average across Manitoba this year, which is why provincial flood forecasters have downgraded the chances of severe flooding in the Red River Valley this spring.
Manitoba Water Stewardship released its flood outlook last week and predicted that floodwaters on the Red would peak at approximately 2.9 feet (0.9 metres) lower than the levels in 2009. Last year was the second biggest flood in the province’s history.
Hundreds of residents were forced to leave their homes, the main highway between Winnipeg and the U.S. border was closed and there was extensive flooding of agricultural land in the valley.
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This spring, the Red is expected to crest at 2006 levels, which represents the sixth highest level in the last century.
Warmer than normal temperatures in March have melted most of the snow in southern Manitoba. There’s not much potential for a huge runoff entering the Red.
“It’s been favourable for most of our watersheds. The Red River tributaries of Manitoba, (they’re) going to be coming up early and it’s going to be pretty light,” said Alf Warkentin, Manitoba’s senior flood forecaster.
There will be a substantial amount of water coming down the Red from North Dakota. Much higher than normal snowfall in the southern half of the state resulted in the Red cresting in Fargo March 21 at 37 feet. (11.28 metres). It was not a record, but close to the highest ever crest of 41 ft. (12.5 metres) set last year.
That water is expected to reach Manitoba in a week or two, most likely peaking in Winnipeg in early April, based on Water Stewardship’s flood outlook.
Manitoba forecasters are also predicting a much better spring melt, compared to 2009, for areas outside of the Red River Valley. The Souris River is expected to flood agricultural lands south of Melita, but water levels will be significantly lower than last year.
The region around Arborg, deluged by overland flooding last year, will also see only minor floods.
