If not for his strong commitment to a four-year crop rotation, Don Boles might have a hard time deciding what crops to seed this year.
The Alberta farmer hasn’t ignored grain prices or the costs of fertilizer in his calculations, but he is committed to a rotation of wheat, barley, peas and canola, with minor variations.
“Basically it’s rotation. Year in and year out you’re better off to look after the soil first,” said Boles, of Three Hills.
However, as spring looms, many prairie farmers are still grappling with their final seeding plans. The uncertainty appears higher than usual for this time of year.
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“I think most of the producers are really struggling because of the cash flow situation and the dismal outlook for prices,” said Grant McLean, Saskatchewan Agriculture cropping management specialist.
“It makes cropping choices really difficult, particularly if you haven’t marketed much of last year’s crop and in some cases two years crop.”
McLean was at a meeting last week in southern Saskatchewan where only about five of 70 producers had made their final seeding decisions. Farmers in that area could be on their fields in as little as a few weeks.
In Manitoba, there are farmers who share the same strategy as Boles, while others are contemplating big changes to pursue crops with lower input costs.
Rob Park said there is more land than usual left as “swing acres.” On those acres, farmers often wait until closer to spring before deciding what to plant, giving themselves some added opportunity to adjust to market outlooks.
“I wouldn’t be surprised that there’s a lot of growers out there that 50 percent of their acres are still swing,” said Park, who manages the industry focus section for Manitoba Agriculture’s crop knowledge centre in Carman.
There had been talk earlier this winter of more land in Manitoba going into summerfallow.
Park doubts that will happen, partly because of the need for farmers’ to plant something to secure cash advances or financing from lenders to continue payments on their mortgages and other debt.
McLean said there remains the possibility of more land in Saskatchewan being summerfallowed this year. Some farmers may put land in summerfallow due to difficulties finding money to plant, he said. Others may reduce their plantings if it appears drought could be a problem.
“There may be a lot of land that will not be planted because there seems to be a lot for rent, even,” McLean said. “The amount of land for rent or for sale is peaking.”
He encourages producers thinking about increasing their summerfallow acres to consider possibilities that will provide soil cover, such as cereals for green feed. Planting legumes could fix nitrogen into the soil for the following years’ crop.
Duff Fenton, a seed grower and farmer at Tisdale, Sask., said crop indecision is evident in his area. However, he thinks some crops could make a profit and noted that farmers can only go so far in changing what they plant.
“You know for sure you’re not going to grow bananas or oranges or grapefruits or anything like, so you’re pretty locked in to pulses and the cereals and canola and flax.”
Except for 130 acres of seed barley, Boles has replaced the 600 acres of barley he normally seeds with hard red wheat that still gives him a cereal in the rotation. He’s keeping the peas for their place in the rotation, the canola stays because it’s a cash crop and the wheat acres have increased because he’s anticipating better prices and high yields.
Like most farmers, he’s looked at cutting back on fertilizer and herbicide spending, but he is reluctant to reduce fertilizer if that means reducing his traditionally high yields.
“I’m no fan of cutting back much further on fertility. I think you just have to manage it as tightly as you can. I know it’s a terrible price for nitrogen, but you’ve got to tread lightly on that icy river.”
Doon Pauly, crop specialist with the Alberta Ag-Info Centre, said most calls from farmers to the provincial government call centre have centred on trying to manage costs. Farmers are searching for anything from a simple worksheet to computer programs that will show them where they can reduce costs in a year that’s predicted to have skimpy returns.
“Realistically if someone can cut their variable costs by 15 percent, they’re doing a pretty good job of managing their costs,” said Pauly.
A $10 per acre reduction in fertilizer or herbicide use might make the difference between making money or not this year.
“There aren’t good solutions.”
Despite the poor prospect of profits, Pauly said farmers haven’t given up hope for modest returns from the upcoming crop.
“The state of mind of people we’re dealing with now is not incredibly pessimistic, but then it’s not very optimistic either,” said Pauly. “They’re still seeking solutions and not giving up.”
