WINNIPEG – Canadian farmers are poised to give Conservatives overwhelming support in the Oct. 14 election, according to a farmer voting intention survey released this week.
An on-line survey of 856 farmers conducted by Winnipeg-based Ipsos Forward Research (IFR) in late August and early September showed 59 percent of respondents said they planned to vote Conservative.
The Liberals trailed with 17 percent, the New Democratic Party at 10 percent and the Green party at seven percent.
The farm voter survey also indicated that high input costs, survival of the family farm and farm profitability are the three highest issue priorities for farmers.
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Despite the amount of attention the Canadian Wheat Board single desk issue receives in the political debate, only three percent in Saskatchewan, two percent in Manitoba and one percent in Alberta identified “maintain-protect the CWB” as a principal issue for the next government to tackle.
As well, Conservative actions during the past 30 months to support and defend supply management domestically and at World Trade Organization talks appear to be paying electoral dividends. 
Among dairy farmers in the survey, 42 percent said they intend to vote Conservative compared to 31 percent for the Liberals. It represents more than a 10 percentage point increase for the Conservatives.
Poultry farmers sided with the Conservatives 58 percent to 25 percent for the Liberals.
While posting a significant lead, Conservative support among farmers is six percentage points lower than the support the party received in the 2006 election.
“It is down a bit and that may reflect some farmers’ judgment on the government’s performance, but this really shows the deep-rooted support Conservatives have among farmers who clearly think the party reflects how they view the world,” IFR senior vice-president Curtis Johnson said Sept. 29.
“It is really about longstanding and deep support in rural Canada for the Conservatives.”
Conservative support on the Prairies is overwhelming: 80 percent in Alberta, 68 percent in Manitoba and 64 percent in Saskatchewan.
Only in Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland do the Liberals hold the upper hand among farmers.
In P.E.I., the split for the Liberals is 53 to 41 percent. In Newfoundland, where Conservative premier Danny Williams has been urging voters to support anyone but the national Conservatives, farmers opted for the Liberals 56 to 31.
Nationally, the Liberals are up one percent, the NDP is up two percent and the Green party, up two percent from the 2006 election.
Ipsos said with the sample size, the results are accurate within a 3.3 percent margin 19 times out of 20.
However, Johnson warned that with smaller sample size, provincial results have a higher potential for inaccuracy.
Still, he said one of the most surprising results was that 22 percent of Quebec farmers surveyed said they would vote NDP, second only to 26 percent in British Columbia.
In Ontario, Conservative support was twice as high as Liberal support. In Quebec, farmers were almost equally divided between Conservatives, Liberals, New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois.
However, not all farmers believe the party they support is necessarily the best equipped to deal in office with farm issues.
While 56 percent of farmers said they intend to vote Conservative, only 41 percent said they thought the Conservatives would be “most helpful” in dealing with farmer and agricultural issues.
Only seven percent picked the Liberals despite an indication of 17 percent support.
The 10 percent of farmers planning to vote NDP said they considered the party best equipped to deal with sector problems.
Johnson said 94 percent of farmers surveyed said they plan to vote, a significantly stronger election turnout than the 60 percent or less who vote nationally.
